Economic study of determinants of the supply response of cotton cultivated area in Egypt

Wafaa Abo Bakr Mohamed Eid¹ and Shahira Mohamed Reda Ibrahim²*

1 Central Laboratory for Design and Statistical Analysis Research, the Agricultural Research Center, Egypt.
2 Agricultural Economics Research Institute, Agricultural Research Center, Egypt.

(Corresponding author: Shahira Mohamed Reda Ibrahim, Email: Shahira_mrd14@yahoo.com).

Received: 1/ 12/ 2025 Accepted: 12/ 3/ 2026

Abstract

The research aims to analyze and identify the determinant influencing the supply response of cotton cultivated area in Egypt, the research has relied on descriptive statistical analysis methods, in addition to relying on quantitative analysis to estimate the trades of supply response. And the selection of competing crops is rice and al-Shamia corn based on the occurrences in the farming season. The area planted with cotton in the current year has been estimated for the changes in the factors that are supposed to affect it, namely the area planted in the previous year, the Farm price, the productivity per acre, the agricultural costs, and the Net profit of the cotton crop and competing crops (rice, corn) in the lag period during the period (2001-2023) using the modified Nerlove model. Cotton in the previous year by 10% will lead to an increase in the cotton area of the current year by 4.72%. Regarding the farm price of rice and corn during the delay period, it has a negative and moral effect, which indicates an economic imbalance between the two crops, While the response coefficient reached 0.528, The response period reached 1.89 year.

Keywords: Cotton, cultivated area, supply response, Nerlove model.

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Using a binary dummy variable model to estimate the impact of the Syrian crisis on wheat production in Syria

Wael Habib^1*, Mohammad Ghoush¹ and Maha Khorshid²

¹Lattakia Research Center, General Commission for Scientific Agricultural Research, Syria.

²Department of Agricultural Economy, Faculty of Agricultural Engineering, Lattakia University, Syria.

²Research Administration of Natural Resources, General Commission for Scientific Agricultural Research, Syria.

(*Corresponding author: Wael Habib, Email: wael.ha76@gmail.com , Tel: 033407349).

Received: 18/ 5/ 2025 Accepted: 10/ 6/ 2025

Abstract:

The study aimed to estimate the impact of the crisis that Syria experienced at the beginning of 2011 on wheat production in the country. The methodology relied on secondary data from the annual agricultural statistical collection for the period (2000-2023), and used a prediction method based on binary dummy variables, in addition to appropriate methods for addressing econometric errors, especially the problem of collinearity. The results showed a decline in wheat production over the studied time series at a negative growth rate of -0.03%, parallel to a decline in area of -0.95% per year. Meanwhile, yields improved over the twenty-four years studied at a rate of 0.92% per year. Furthermore, multiple regression analysis using the binary dummy variables method revealed collinearity between the time variables, making it difficult to measure the impact of the Syrian crisis. This was addressed using the principal component transformation method. These results revealed a significant gap in annual wheat production compared to forecasts based on the general trend preceding the crisis, on the one hand, and the actual values achieved during the crisis period, which began in 2015 and continued until 2023, the final year of the series. Ultimately, the Syrian crisis contributed to slowing the previous increase in both area and production, resulting in losses in the expected growth of 21 million tons until 2023.

Keywords: Wheat, Syrian crisis, binary dummy variables, collinearity.

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The economic efficiency of investing in reclaimed agricultural lands in Lattakia governorate

Nouma adnan shiban1*, Ebrahim Hamdan Saker1 and Sausan Abdullah Haifa2

1 Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agricultural Engineering, Lattakia University, Syria.
2 Department of Soil and Water Sciences, Faculty of Agricultural Engineering, Lattakia University, Syria.

(*Corresponding author: Nouma adnan shiban, Email: noumasheeban1@gmail.com Tel: 0941494901)

Received: 26/ 6/ 2025 Accepted: 3/ 8/ 2025

Abstract:

This study was conducted in Lattakia Governorate for the 2022-2023 agricultural season. The aim was to evaluate the efficiency of agricultural land reclamation by examining the changes resulting from reclamation, whether in crop composition, yield, or net profits, and then determining the financial return of agricultural land reclamation. The study relied on primary data collected in the field from a random sample of 346 farmers benefiting from land reclamation operations in Lattakia Governorate. The study used a descriptive and analytical approach to achieve its objectives. The results showed that the average cost of agricultural land reclamation in the study sample amounted to 2,079,398.6 Syrian pounds per dunum. The cost of rock removal constituted the largest portion, at 44.1% of the total reclamation costs, followed by the cost of excavation and soil leveling, at 33%. As a result of reclamation, the total net returns from crops and agricultural lands increased from 377.053 million Syrian pounds before reclamation to 4,115.767 million Syrian pounds after reclamation, i.e. a total increase of 3,738.714 million Syrian pounds, so that the percentage of return resulting from reclamation was estimated at about 278.1%.

Keywords: Reclamation, economic impact, productive afforestation project, coastal and central region development project.

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An analytical economic study on the impact of the Syrian crisis on food security of livestock products

Leen Almukaddem^1*

¹Tartus Research Center, General Commission for Scientific Agricultural Research (GCSAR), Syria.

(*Corresponding author: Leen Almukaddem, Email: leeno1411@yahoo.com, Mob.: 0933374718)

Received: 24/ 6/ 2025 Accepted: 3/ 9/ 2025

Abstract

This study highlights the impact of the Syrian crisis on the livestock sector and its products, assessing its contribution to achieving national food security by comparing two time periods: pre-crisis (2002–2011) and during the crisis (2012–2022). The study was based on secondary data collected from the agricultural statistical yearbook of the Ministry of Agriculture. The results indicated that livestock production experienced a significant decline during the crisis period. Although relative self-sufficiency was observed in some products, such as red meat and poultry, which reached 114.5% and 102.3% respectively during pre-crisis period. however, this self-sufficiency declined markedly during the crisis period to reach 98.7% and 96.7% respectively, reflecting significant challenges in ensuring food provision for the population. A comparison of the two study periods revealed a reduction in the average strategic stock of all livestock products, except for red meat and fish. with a deficit in the consumption quantities of poultry meat, milk, and eggs during the crisis period, leading to a decline in the food security coefficient for most animal products, particularly poultry meat, eggs, and milk, where the food security coefficient recorded of -0.017, -0.02, and -0.023, respectively. Therefore, the study recommends increasing the strategic stock of animal-based food commodities and emphasizes the need for effective policies to support the recovery of the sector and addressing future challenges.

Keywords: Livestock, Consumption Availability, Self-Sufficiency, Food Security, Strategic Stock.

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An Econometric Study of the Impact of Climate Change on Agricultural Production in Syria 1990–2020

Alaa Hamo ¹^* and Naji Al-Faraj²

¹Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agricultural Engineering, University of Damascus, Damascus, Syria.

²Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agricultural Engineering in Al-Hasakah, Al-Furat University, Al-Hasakah, Syria.

(*Corresponding author: Alaa Hamo, Email: alaasuliman@outlook.com, Phone: +963951850626)

Received: 27/ 06/ 2025 Accepted: 3/ 08/ 2025

Abstract

The agricultural sector in Syria is a vital part of the economy, yet it faces growing challenges due to climate change. This study aimed to analyze the impact of climate change on agricultural production in Syria from 1990 to 2020 using a Cobb-Douglas production function. The study relied on annual data from the FAO and World Bank databases. The results showed a steady rise in temperatures, peaking in 2010 with an average increase of 1.5°C. In contrast, precipitation rates exhibited sharp fluctuations, ranging from the highest recorded level in 1988 (450 mm) to the lowest in 2008 (150 mm). The findings also revealed significant seasonal variations in the impact of climatic factors. Winter and autumn rainfall contributed to a 0.15% increase in production per 1% rise in precipitation, while increased rainfall in spring and summer led to a decline in output (−0.054% and −0.0208%, respectively). Regarding temperature effects, the production function indicated that higher temperatures in spring and summer had a positive correlation with agricultural output (T2, T3), while winter temperatures also positively influenced production (T1). However, rising spring temperatures were associated with reduced agricultural productivity (elasticity of −0.069%). Additionally, the results demonstrated that both cultivated area and labor had a significant positive impact on agricultural production. In contrast, fertilizer and pesticide use showed an inverse relationship with output, suggesting either excessive or inefficient application of these inputs. Furthermore, the De Martonne aridity index highlighted worsening drought conditions, with the dry season extending from May to October and peaking in July and August. The study recommends integrating climate change into agricultural planning to ensure sector sustainability, promoting rainfed agriculture to optimize natural water resources, and developing early drought warning systems to mitigate the adverse effects of climate variability. Finally, farmers should receive financial and technical support to effectively implement these adaptive measures

Keywords: Climate change, agricultural production, Cobb-Douglas function, Syria, food security.

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Awareness of Cattle farmers of the importance of converting agricultural residues into unconventional feed in Latakia Governorate

Safaa Dakhil^1*, Ibrahim Saqr¹ and Rabab Absi²

¹Faculty of Agricultural Engineering, Department of Agricultural Economics, University of Lattakia, Lattakia, Syria.

² Faculty of Agricultural Engineering, Animal Production Department, University of Aleppo, Aleppo, Syria.

(*Corresponding author: Safaa Dakhil, E-Mail: safaadakhil5@gmail.com).

Received: 19/ 07/ 2025 Accepted: 3/ 09/ 2025

Abstract

The objective of this study is to assess the level of awareness among cattle farmers in Latakia Governorate regarding the importance of converting agricultural residues into unconventional feed, as well as to analyze the personal and professional factors influencing such awareness.The study was conducted in 2024 using a structured field questionnaire distributed to a random sample representing 5% of the total cattle farmers in the governorate. The final sample consisted of 385 farmers, distributed across four main districts: Central Latakia, Jableh, Qardaha, and Al-Haffa.Statistical analysis was carried out using SPSS and Excel software, employing descriptive methods (means, frequencies, and Likert scale), One-Way ANOVA, and Pearson’s correlation coefficient to test the research hypotheses. The internal consistency of the instrument was verified using Cronbach’s Alpha, which .The results revealed that the overall level of awareness among farmers was moderate, with a tendency toward the lower end, particularly in practical aspects, despite a relatively better theoretical understanding of the concept. Statistically significant correlations were found between awareness level and several factors, including educational attainment, number of cattle owned, and access to agricultural information sources. However, no significant relationship was found with age or landholding size.The study recommends strengthening agricultural extension services and implementing hands-on training programs to enhance farmers’ awareness and technical capacity in utilizing agricultural waste for low-cost feed production.

Keywords: Cattle Farmers, Agricultural Residues, Unconventional Feed.

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Analysis The Cognitive Level of Cattle Breeders Towards Lumpy Skin Disease and Mastitis

Khetam Edrees 1*, Hassan AL-shubatt 2, Nisreen Edrees2 , Salwa Saadia2 and Wael Habib1

1Economic and Social Studies Department, General Commission for Scientific and Agricultural Research.
2Agriculture Research Center Homs, General Commission for Scientific and Agricultural Research, Syria.

(*Corresponding author: Dr. Khetam edrees. E-Mail: Khetamedrees83@yahoo.com ).

Received: 4/ 05/ 2025 Accepted: 28/ 06/ 2025

Abstract:

The research aimed to analysis the cognitive level of cow breeders for the most important health knowledge Towards lumpy skin disease and mastitis, and studying the impact of social and economic factors on theirs. primary data was collected through personal interviews with breeders in (2022) by using a questionnaire designed for the purpose of this study after it was tested., where the descriptive method was relied upon to analyze the data and the Kendall Tau and gamma correlation coefficient was used to study the correlation and ordinal regression relationships to determine the most important variables affecting the level of knowledge of breeders after prepared a cognitive level scale for both diseases consisting of (48) statement, as the results showed: The level of knowledge of (44.8)% of breeders of the recommendations and information regarding to lumpy skin disease was limited, while about (50.8)% of their was moderate level , and the remaining percentage (4.4%) had a good level. The results of the ordinal regression also confirmed that there was significant relationship between each From (age, educational level, income, size of animal holdings, exposure to information sources) on the dependent factor, As for the level of knowledge of breeders about recommendations and information related to mastitis: it was found that about (50.2)% of their knowledge level was moderate , while (47.3)% of them had limited knowledge, it is close to moderate level, and the remaining percentage was only (2.5)%, had good knowledge. The results also confirmed that there was significant relationship between each of (age, educational level, experience, size of animal holdings, extent of participation in membership of organizations and local communities) on the dependent factor, The final results reveal that cognitive level for both diseases was low. The research recommends in provision of education extension services aimed to improve breeder’s knowledge by preparing a scientific and practical plan that accurately addresses the detailed results of this study according to the cognitive levels of breeders in the study area.

Keywords: lumpy skin, mastitis, cognitive level, ordinal regression, cattle breeders.

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The Education Impact of the Farmer Field Schools of Almond ‎Trees At Shahbaa Region In Al-Suwayda Governorate

Jalaa Kanbar^*(1)

(1). Department of Economic and Agricultural Extension, Faculty of Agriculture, Al Furat University, Der-ezzor, Syria.

(*Corresponding author: Dr. Jalaa Kanbar. Email: 2010drjalaa@gmail.com).

Received: 26/02/2020 Accepted: 07/04/2020

Abstract

The research aimed to determine the education impact of the Farmer Field School (FFS) at Shahbaa region in the Al-Suwayda governorate, by identification the contribution of FFS in education and transferring the recent agricultural recommendations for almond trees. Data of the study from 40 farmers within the FFS were collected by personal interview, using a questionnaire prepared for this purpose. This research was conducted in two villages (Park and Al-Hit) at Shahibaa agriculture directorate in Al-Suwayda governorate. The tabulated presentation of data was used, which included the frequencies, percentages, average, and standard deviation. The results of study showed that the proportionofagriculture respondents with high level of education reached 25% of the respondents. While the proportion of respondents with low level was 20% , and with an average level of 55% of the respondents. The results showed that 82.5% of the respondents learned best methods for controlling diseases and insects through the participation in FFS. 72.5% of the respondents learned how to implementation of the pruning and rootstock almond trees. The most important suggestions of the respondents to increasing the advantages of FFS were to continue and increase the number of FFS for the same crop in one season (85% of the respondents), provide financial and technical support for facilitators to be able to do their job more easily and all of the respondents appeared their desire to participate in another FFS in the future. The research recommended to the need to mainstream and support farmer field schools in all governorates to work on increasing the efficiency of the deployment of agricultural innovations, to provide financial and technical support for facilitators and to stimulate farmers within FFS financially or morally.

Key Words: The education impact, Farmer field schools, Almond trees, Al –Suwayda Governorate.

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Analytical Study of Cherry Production in Latakia ‎Governorate. Case Study: Al-Haffah Region

Samah Mohammad Ahmad*⁽¹⁾ and Ghassan Yacoub⁽²⁾

(1). Department of Plant Production, Directorate of Agriculture, Lattakia, Ministry of Agriculture, Damascus, Syria.

(2). Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture, Tishreen University, Lattakia, Syria.

(* corresponding author: Eng. Samah Mohamed Ahmed, Email: samohahahmad93@gmail.com).

Received: 25/08/2019 Accepted: 10/11/2019

Abstract

This search aims to calculate production costs of all service operations provided to the cherry tree during the production season and calculating some of its economic indicators. The study was carried out during 2017 in Al-Haffah area with the help of a questionnaire which distributed to 95 farmers. Prices and costs were also based on the same year. The results found that the total costs per dunum planted with cherries equal (151882 s.p). Total output value was (700000 s.p), profit from dunum was (548118 s.p), profitability ratio based on costs was (3.6), while profitability coefficient based on invested capital was (21.6), and the economic efficiency attained (4.6). The trend of the development of the area and production in Al-Haffa showed that the linear model was suitable. Significant increases were recorded at the level of 5% at a rate of (6.13 ha per year) from the average value of (302.9 ha). The quadratic model of the development of production showed a significant increase at the level of 5%, representing 36.63% of the average production value which reached about (1627.6 tons), then production began to decrease significantly to about 2.34% of the average value. The study recommends that farmers should be encouraged to grow cherry trees, whether basic or bearing, because of their economic feasibility. Try to find the way to support farmers in terms of input requirements, and establish extension courses for farmers to guide them to provide the best services for the cherry crop.

Key words: Cherry orchards, Production costs, Profitability ratio.

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Production Efficiency of Some Vegetable Crops Under the ‎Protected Agriculture System in Egypt

Diaa ElHaq Ibrahim Ibrahim⁽¹⁾ Moataz Eliw Mostafa Ahmed^*(2)

(1). Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture, Al-Azhar University, Cairo, Egypt.

(2). Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture, Al-Azhar University, Assuit, Egypt.

(*Corresponding author: Moataz Eliw Mostafa Ahmed. E-mail: moatazeliw@azhar.edu.eg).

Received: 03/04/2020 Accepted: 18/05/2020

Abstract

The Egyptian agricultural sector has an importance among the other sectors. In addition to being a source for foreign currency, about 30% of the total employees are working in it in 2014. The research problem has been determined in that the Egyptian agricultural sector has several challenges. It makes vertical expansion important for this sector development so this research aimed to identify the usage efficiency of the economic resources for cucumber in the large capacity, and small capacity greenhouses, and the cantaloupe. The results indicated that the study crops had an economic efficiency because of the return rate was more than 1. In addition to the total production elasticity which was 1.4, 1.02, and 1.19 for the study crops, respectively, which means that production was taking place in the non-economical stage for the production, and it still needs intensify of some production elements. With an estimate of the function cost, it was found that the production volume that make the return the greatest amounted to 118 tons, and the production volume that makes costs minim was 88.8 tons, and the total cost elasticity was 0.89. All that was for the cucumber in the large capacity. However, the production volume that makes the revenue the greatest in Dakahlia Governorate was 166 tons, and the production volume that makes the cost is lowest was 120 tons. For Al-Buhaira Governorate, the production volume that maximizes the revenue had reached about 345 tons, and the production volume that makes the lowest cost was 197 tons. The research found that the problems facing protected agriculture were the high costs for protected agriculture, low of standard specifications for plastics and some problems related to workers.

Keywords: Production efficiency, Protected agriculture, Vegetable crops, Egypt.

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