Tag Archives: Supply response

Economic study of determinants of the supply response of cotton cultivated area in Egypt

Wafaa Abo Bakr Mohamed Eid1 and Shahira Mohamed Reda Ibrahim2*

1 Central Laboratory for Design and Statistical Analysis Research, the Agricultural Research Center, Egypt.
2 Agricultural Economics Research Institute, Agricultural Research Center, Egypt.

(Corresponding author: Shahira Mohamed Reda Ibrahim, Email:  Shahira_mrd14@yahoo.com).

Received: 1/ 12/ 2025    Accepted: 12/ 3/ 2026

Abstract

The research aims to analyze and identify the determinant influencing the supply response of cotton cultivated area in Egypt, the research has relied on descriptive statistical analysis methods, in addition to relying on quantitative analysis to estimate the trades of supply response. And the selection of competing crops is rice and al-Shamia corn based on the occurrences in the farming season. The area planted with cotton in the current year has been estimated for the changes in the factors that are supposed to affect it, namely the area planted in the previous year, the Farm price, the productivity per acre, the agricultural costs, and the Net profit of the cotton crop and competing crops (rice, corn) in the lag period during the period (2001-2023) using the modified Nerlove model. Cotton in the previous year by 10% will lead to an increase in the cotton area of the current year by 4.72%. Regarding the farm price of rice and corn during the delay period, it has a negative and moral effect, which indicates an economic imbalance between the two crops, While the response coefficient reached 0.528, The response period reached 1.89 year.

Keywords: Cotton, cultivated area, supply response, Nerlove model.

 Full paper in Arabic:PDF

Supply Response of the Most Important Vegetable Crops in Syria

Fayez AL-Mokdad*(1) and Ahamad AL-Rifa`ee(1)

(1). Administration of Socio Economic Research, General Commission for Scientific Agricultural Research (GCSR), Damascus, Syria.

(*Corresponding author: Dr. Fayez Al-Mokdad. E-Mail: deepmokdad@yahoo.com).

Received: 29/03/2016                                      Accepted: 06/05/2016

Abstract

It is not possible to dispense the vegetable needs of people in Syria. These crops are suffering considerable and sharp fluctuations in prices (including the product itself, competitive crops, and inputs prices). Price fluctuations are strongly effect the cultivated area of vegetable crops next year. This research aimed to estimate supply response of cultivated area to the changes of the above-mentioned prices during the period 1994-2013 in Syria. Nerlove Partial Adjustment Model is used, and Durbin-Watson statistic was used to examine the existence of autocorrelation problem in data. The results revealed that the changes in the cultivated area of the studied crops (Potato, Tomato, Onion, and Garlic) influenced by the changes in their own prices in addition to the prices of the other competitive crops. The adjustment parameter was 0.354, 0.590, 0.478, and 0.382 for each of these crops respectively. Estimated response elasticities showed the significant effect of the prices on the cultivated area, and in turn on the production of the vegetable crops. The study suggested considering these elasticities for agricultural planning and policy assessment.

Key Words: Supply response, Nerlove model, Partial adjustment, Price fluctuation,                      Response elasticity.

Full paper in Arabic:تقدير استجابة عرض أهمّ محاصيل الخضار في سورية