Fayez AL-Mokdad*(1) and Ahamad AL-Rifa`ee(1)
(1). Administration of Socio Economic Research, General Commission for Scientific Agricultural Research (GCSR), Damascus, Syria.
(*Corresponding author: Dr. Fayez Al-Mokdad. E-Mail: deepmokdad@yahoo.com).
Received: 29/03/2016 Accepted: 06/05/2016
Abstract
It is not possible to dispense the vegetable needs of people in Syria. These crops are suffering considerable and sharp fluctuations in prices (including the product itself, competitive crops, and inputs prices). Price fluctuations are strongly effect the cultivated area of vegetable crops next year. This research aimed to estimate supply response of cultivated area to the changes of the above-mentioned prices during the period 1994-2013 in Syria. Nerlove Partial Adjustment Model is used, and Durbin-Watson statistic was used to examine the existence of autocorrelation problem in data. The results revealed that the changes in the cultivated area of the studied crops (Potato, Tomato, Onion, and Garlic) influenced by the changes in their own prices in addition to the prices of the other competitive crops. The adjustment parameter was 0.354, 0.590, 0.478, and 0.382 for each of these crops respectively. Estimated response elasticities showed the significant effect of the prices on the cultivated area, and in turn on the production of the vegetable crops. The study suggested considering these elasticities for agricultural planning and policy assessment.
Key Words: Supply response, Nerlove model, Partial adjustment, Price fluctuation, Response elasticity.
Full paper in Arabic:تقدير استجابة عرض أهمّ محاصيل الخضار في سورية