Wafaa Abo Bakr Mohamed Eid1 and Shahira Mohamed Reda Ibrahim2*
1 Central Laboratory for Design and Statistical Analysis Research, the Agricultural Research Center, Egypt.
2 Agricultural Economics Research Institute, Agricultural Research Center, Egypt.
(Corresponding author: Shahira Mohamed Reda Ibrahim, Email: Shahira_mrd14@yahoo.com).
Received: 1/ 12/ 2025 Accepted: 12/ 3/ 2026
Abstract
The research aims to analyze and identify the determinant influencing the supply response of cotton cultivated area in Egypt, the research has relied on descriptive statistical analysis methods, in addition to relying on quantitative analysis to estimate the trades of supply response. And the selection of competing crops is rice and al-Shamia corn based on the occurrences in the farming season. The area planted with cotton in the current year has been estimated for the changes in the factors that are supposed to affect it, namely the area planted in the previous year, the Farm price, the productivity per acre, the agricultural costs, and the Net profit of the cotton crop and competing crops (rice, corn) in the lag period during the period (2001-2023) using the modified Nerlove model. Cotton in the previous year by 10% will lead to an increase in the cotton area of the current year by 4.72%. Regarding the farm price of rice and corn during the delay period, it has a negative and moral effect, which indicates an economic imbalance between the two crops, While the response coefficient reached 0.528, The response period reached 1.89 year.
Keywords: Cotton, cultivated area, supply response, Nerlove model.
Full paper in Arabic:PDF