Alaa Hamo 1* and Naji Al-Faraj2
1Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agricultural Engineering, University of Damascus, Damascus, Syria.
2Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agricultural Engineering in Al-Hasakah, Al-Furat University, Al-Hasakah, Syria.
(*Corresponding author: Alaa Hamo, Email: alaasuliman@outlook.com, Phone: +963951850626)
Received: 27/ 06/ 2025 Accepted: 3/ 08/ 2025
Abstract
The agricultural sector in Syria is a vital part of the economy, yet it faces growing challenges due to climate change. This study aimed to analyze the impact of climate change on agricultural production in Syria from 1990 to 2020 using a Cobb-Douglas production function. The study relied on annual data from the FAO and World Bank databases. The results showed a steady rise in temperatures, peaking in 2010 with an average increase of 1.5°C. In contrast, precipitation rates exhibited sharp fluctuations, ranging from the highest recorded level in 1988 (450 mm) to the lowest in 2008 (150 mm). The findings also revealed significant seasonal variations in the impact of climatic factors. Winter and autumn rainfall contributed to a 0.15% increase in production per 1% rise in precipitation, while increased rainfall in spring and summer led to a decline in output (−0.054% and −0.0208%, respectively). Regarding temperature effects, the production function indicated that higher temperatures in spring and summer had a positive correlation with agricultural output (T2, T3), while winter temperatures also positively influenced production (T1). However, rising spring temperatures were associated with reduced agricultural productivity (elasticity of −0.069%). Additionally, the results demonstrated that both cultivated area and labor had a significant positive impact on agricultural production. In contrast, fertilizer and pesticide use showed an inverse relationship with output, suggesting either excessive or inefficient application of these inputs. Furthermore, the De Martonne aridity index highlighted worsening drought conditions, with the dry season extending from May to October and peaking in July and August. The study recommends integrating climate change into agricultural planning to ensure sector sustainability, promoting rainfed agriculture to optimize natural water resources, and developing early drought warning systems to mitigate the adverse effects of climate variability. Finally, farmers should receive financial and technical support to effectively implement these adaptive measures
Keywords: Climate change, agricultural production, Cobb-Douglas function, Syria, food security.
Full paper in Arabic: pdf