Agricultural production | Syrian Journal of Agricultural Research SJAR

Alaa Hamo ¹^* and Naji Al-Faraj²

¹Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agricultural Engineering, University of Damascus, Damascus, Syria.

²Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agricultural Engineering in Al-Hasakah, Al-Furat University, Al-Hasakah, Syria.

(*Corresponding author: Alaa Hamo, Email: alaasuliman@outlook.com, Phone: +963951850626)

Received: 27/ 06/ 2025 Accepted: 3/ 08/ 2025

Abstract

The agricultural sector in Syria is a vital part of the economy, yet it faces growing challenges due to climate change. This study aimed to analyze the impact of climate change on agricultural production in Syria from 1990 to 2020 using a Cobb-Douglas production function. The study relied on annual data from the FAO and World Bank databases. The results showed a steady rise in temperatures, peaking in 2010 with an average increase of 1.5°C. In contrast, precipitation rates exhibited sharp fluctuations, ranging from the highest recorded level in 1988 (450 mm) to the lowest in 2008 (150 mm). The findings also revealed significant seasonal variations in the impact of climatic factors. Winter and autumn rainfall contributed to a 0.15% increase in production per 1% rise in precipitation, while increased rainfall in spring and summer led to a decline in output (−0.054% and −0.0208%, respectively). Regarding temperature effects, the production function indicated that higher temperatures in spring and summer had a positive correlation with agricultural output (T2, T3), while winter temperatures also positively influenced production (T1). However, rising spring temperatures were associated with reduced agricultural productivity (elasticity of −0.069%). Additionally, the results demonstrated that both cultivated area and labor had a significant positive impact on agricultural production. In contrast, fertilizer and pesticide use showed an inverse relationship with output, suggesting either excessive or inefficient application of these inputs. Furthermore, the De Martonne aridity index highlighted worsening drought conditions, with the dry season extending from May to October and peaking in July and August. The study recommends integrating climate change into agricultural planning to ensure sector sustainability, promoting rainfed agriculture to optimize natural water resources, and developing early drought warning systems to mitigate the adverse effects of climate variability. Finally, farmers should receive financial and technical support to effectively implement these adaptive measures

Keywords: Climate change, agricultural production, Cobb-Douglas function, Syria, food security.

Full paper in Arabic: pdf

Leen Almukaddem*⁽¹⁾ Shaza Mayhoob⁽¹⁾ Safaa Ahmad⁽¹⁾ and Faten Edrees⁽²⁾

(1). Tartous Research Center, General Commission for Scientific Agricultural Research (GCSAR), Damascus, Syria.

(2). Administration of Socio-Economics Research, (GCSAR), Damascus, Syria.

(*Corresponding author: Eng. Leen Almukaddem. E-Mail: leeno1411@yahoo.com).

Received: 01/09/2018 Accepted: 15/10/2018

Abstract

The problem of labor scarcity is considered as a major obstacle in the agriculture sector, so this research aimed to study labor shortage, its causes and possible solutions. The study was conducted based on a random sample of 200 farmers distributed in 7 villages in Banias and Akkar Plain areas in Tartous governorate. The study showed that labor scarcity has affected the productivity of crops in almost all studied samples of farmers. The difference in the productivity of tomato crop was 4.8% and it for eggplant it was 6.7%, while the productivity of potato and peanut did not influence. The main reasons for labor scarcity were the high income provided by other non-agricultural businesses such as trade and local free jobs compared to agricultural work, seasonal agricultural work and the internal and external migration of young men. The study also showed that most farmers did not have agricultural machines that could save labor, because of the high cost of using machinery, small ownerships and lack of experience of using these machines. The study suggested that the agricultural extension should be directed toward encouraging farmers to use technologies, improving the level of living for the agricultural workers, by raising wages and establishing updated database including all the information about the agricultural workers, their wages and skills that could help in clarifying the situation of agricultural labor in Syria.

Key words: Human labor, Machinery, Agricultural production, Labor scarcity, Tartous governorates.

Full paper in Arabic: PDF