Eissa Nofal(*1) Maan Daud(1) Boshra khozam(1)
(1). General Commission for scientific Agricultural Research, Syria.
(*Corrsponding author: Eisaa Noafal . E-Mail: issa.mh.nofal@gmail.com).
Received: 05/08/2019 Accepted: 07/09/2019
Abstract
The FORCACT function was used to confirm the equation also the result was identical. There was a negative correlation between dry temperature and precipitation, and dry years exceeded 53.3% but the wet years was 46.6% of the observed years. A prediction equation was found for the quantities of precipitation based on the observed years which was y = – 0.1862x + 368.24. The forecasting for the year 2025 was 360.79 mm / year and therefore the annual rate decreased by 4.688 mm compared with the base years. The forecasting equation matched with the cumulative difference values method in calculating the annual rainfall in 2025 where the equation was: y = – 0.1862 x + 2.8863. Herein, the average of precipitation was 360,843, which is 4.617 mm lower than the average compared with the base years. When the equation of precipitation prediction was derived by applying the three-year moving average method, the resulted equation was: y = – 0.0984 x + 366.91 and when tested with DATA ANALYSIS and MOVING AVEREG the annual average reached 362.9 mm / year in 2025, this means a decrease in the quantity of precipitation of 2.56. mm / year compared with the observed years.
Keywords: Temperature, Precipitation, Forecasting, Regression equation, Moving averages, Homs meteo station.
Full paper in Arabic: PDF