Effect of Five-Years Agricultural Plans on the Area and ‎Production of Barley Crop in Syria

Alawi Ali*(1) Ibrahim Hamdan Saqr(1) Mohamed Mahmoud(2) and Ali Khaddam(1)

(1). Department of Agricultural Economics Faculty of Agriculture, Tishreen University, Lattakia, Syria.

(2). Department of Economics and Planning, Faculty of Economics, Tishreen University, Lattakia, Syria.

(*Corresponding author: Eng. Alawi Ali. E-Mail: alaweeali2@gmail.com).

Received: 13/03/2019                               Accepted: 29/05/2019


This research contributes to draw a predictive image by looking at the future of barley cultivation in Syria. Therefore, it has an important agricultural policy applications for area and production appropriate for agricultural production planning and crop rotation. It aimed to analyze the area and production of barley depending on five years in order to predict their changes during the period 2019-2025. The research was carried out using the descriptive-analytical approach and the standard quantitative analysis method using box-jenkins method to analyze the time series of production and area of barley within the years 1986-2018. The results showed that the area cultivated with barley crops will increase gradually at an annual growth rate by (2.3) (annual growth rate)  in the upcoming years (2019-2025) with a confidence level 95%, using ARIMA model (0,0,1). The results indicated that the goal of increasing production in the 11th Five-Years Agricultural Plan was not achieved. The production average of irrigated and rainfed areas reached 904.1 thousand tons, which was below the targeted of 1553 thousand tons. The production average of irrigated and rainfed areas declined during the period (2016-2018) by (-1.8%) and (-20.4%), respectively. The total barley production in Syria will increase at a very low growth rate estimated to 0.3% (annual growth rate) in the upcoming years (2019-2025) with a confidence level 95%, using ARIMA model(1,0,1).    

Key words:  Barley, Five-years agricultural plans, Production, Area.

Full paper in Arabic: PDF