Modeling the determinants affecting the severity of production problem in small-scale agricultural enterprises using Ordinal Logistic Regression

ALmouthana Aziz Hasan1*, Salam Ibrahim1 and Lama Kaddaha1

1 General Commission for Scientific Agricultural Research, Latakia Center
(*Corresponding author: Dr. ALmouthana Aziz Hasan, Email: almouthana.hasan@gmail.com Mob: 0988205977).

Received: 23/ 2/ 2026     Accepted: 16/ 5/ 2026

Abstract: 

This study aims to analyze the factors influencing the severity of production problems faced by small-scale agricultural projects, based on a field survey using data collected during the period 2024/2025. The dependent variable was constructed by aggregating the total scores of a Likert scale and then classified into three ordered categories: (1 = low production problems, 2 = moderate production problems, and 3 = severe production problems). To achieve the study objectives, an ordinal logistic regression model was employed to identify the magnitude and direction of the effects of the independent variables. The results indicate that production problems are not solely associated with technical factors but are also significantly influenced by economic and market-related conditions, particularly input availability and rising input costs, labor shortages, market instability, and credit-based financing structures. The model further revealed statistically significant negative effects of education level, agricultural experience, household size, agricultural training, and type of agricultural project, all of which contribute to reducing production problems. In contrast, significant positive effects were found for having an additional occupation, reliance on credit financing, and distance from markets, all of which increase the likelihood of more severe production problems. These findings highlight the importance of strengthening human and managerial capacities, improving production structures, and reducing financial and spatial constraints. Such measures play a crucial role in mitigating production challenges and enhancing the sustainability of small agricultural enterprises. Accordingly, the study recommends the adoption of evidence-based policies to support small-scale agricultural projects, the development of efficient input supply systems, and the expansion of financing options to improve production efficiency and reduce exposure to production risks.

Keywords: Small-Scale Agricultural Enterprises, Production Problems, Ordinal Logistic Regression, Likert Scale.

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