Ramy Mahmoud*¹, Mahmoud Alio¹ and Georges Makhoul²

1 Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agricultural Engineering, Tishreen University, Syria.
2 Department of economics and planning, Faculty of economics, Tishreen University, Syria.
(*Corresponding author: Researcher Ramy Mahmoud, Email: ramymah92@gmail.com).

Received: 6/04 /2026     Accepted: 1/07 /2026

Abstract: 

This study investigated analyzing the relationship between agricultural exports and agricultural domestic output in Syria during the period 1990-2023 using a standard methodology based on unit root tests (ADF), vector Autoregression (VAR) models, and impulse response function analysis.The results showed no cointegration or long-term equilibrium relationship between the two variables the relationship is temporary rather than structural. This is because Syria exports surplus production and lacks a specialized export sector. On the other hand, the dynamic analysis revealed the presence of a strong and positive short-term interaction, where positive shocks in agricultural output led to an increase in exports. Also, a shock in exports temporarily stimulates agricultural output.These results indicate the fragility of the relationship between output and export, and the study recommends enhancing agricultural productivity, diversifying export markets, and developing export-related infrastructure to meet the quality and phytosanitary requirements of global markets in order to transform this short-term relationship into a sustainable, structural one.

Keywords: Syria, agricultural exports, agricultural domestic output, joint integration.

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