Applying Spectral Wheat Yield Prediction Program in Al-Raqqa Governorate Under Crisis Conditions

Nasser Ibrahem*(1) Hayan Abo-Karam(1) and Ali Ismail(1)

(1). General Organization of Remote Sensing GORS, Damascus, Syria.

(*Corresponding author: Dr. Nasser Ibrahem. E-Mail:

Received: 12/11/2018                                Accepted: 19/01/2019


This study aims to applying Spectral Wheat Yield Prediction (SWYP) program (designed under Syrian agricultural conditions) on multispectral/multistage images data for estimation the area and production of wheat in Al-Raqqa governorate (as affected zone) during the crisis (2014 season) to determine the damages on the agricultural sector depending on the spatial distribution of severity effects on yield and area of wheat during the crisis in Al-Raqqa governorate. This technique evaluated the cultivated wheat area of /90774 ha/ and yield production of /210060 tons/ in that season. The accuracy of the results was tested according to two methods: the first, using the rainfall-agricultural analysis models at the overall level of the governorate; and the second method depended upon field-specific data, and the accuracy of the two methods reached 95%. Area and yield of wheat that estimated by satellite images during that season were about 55% and 42% of the recorded cultivated area and yield, the reduction went down 45% and 58%, respectively. Spatial distribution map of the affected area and wheat yield were created according to three degrees of influence: small, medium and large. The absence of planting (large effect) in some areas was found in the east and south of the governorate, while some areas were not affected in that season as before the crisis (small affect) in the north of the governorate. Thus, it was decided that the agricultural sector, according to satellite-agricultural data, was more than 58% in that governorate and in that season, where the severity of the damage varied between areas from large damage (100%, non-cultivated) then medium to small (less 10%), but no significant differences were recorded in area and yield of wheat in Al-Raqqa governorate before and during the crisis (2014) depending on agricultural statics data, where, area of wheat increased 13% and yield decreased 25% simultaneously in spite of decreasing rainfall amount of 42%. The study recommends the application of this technology effectively and continuously, especially during the crisis and disaster times, which ensures the accuracy of planning and management of the main and strategic crops to achieve food security on the country level.

 Keywords: Spectral wheat yield prediction, Crisis, Satellite images, Al-Raqqa governorate, Syria.

Full paper in Arabic: PDF