Moataz Eliw Mostafa Ahmed*(1) and Mohamed. A. Elsamie Abd Elsayed(1)
(1). Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture, Al-Azhar University, Assuit, Egypt.
(*Corresponding Author: Moataz Eliw Mostafa Ahmed. E-mail: moatazeliw@azhar.edu.eg)
Received: 03/04/2020 Accepted: 23/06/2020
Abstract
Egypt suffers from insufficient domestic production for domestic consumption of maize. Estimation of future needs of this crop is one of essential tools that may help in setting plans to reduce the gap and minimize the financial burdens resulting from importing Maize. The research aimed mainly to predict the economic variables of the maize in Egypt through ARIMA models. The results showed that the Egyptian production of Maize in 2020, 2021 and 2022 is expected to reach 6.427 million tons, while the Egyptian consumption of the crop in the same years is expected to reach 12.168 million tons. Thus, the apparent gap of maize in Egypt will be about 5.741 million tons. Therefore, the value of Egyptian imports of this crop is expected to be about 1.097, 1.089, and $ 1.084 million in 2020, 2021 and 2022, respectively. The research recommended establishing a database on the future status of maize in Egypt that helps decision-makers in drawing up various incentive policies.
Keywords: Maize, ARIMA Models, Production, Consumption, Egypt.