Micheal Skaf⁽¹⁾ , Roze Al Koubaily⁽¹⁾  and Eghaa Zaher^{* (3)}

(1). Forestry and Environment Department, Faculty of Agricultural Engineering, Tishreen University, Lattakia, Syria.

(*Corresponding author: Eng. Eghraa Saleh Zaher. E-mail: eghraazaher@gmail.com, phone : 0991781935).

Received:  22/02/2024         Accepted:11/07/2024

Forest fires are one of the most important disturbances that threaten the sustainability of forest ecosystems, and their danger increases year after year in various regions of the world in light of current climate changes. The daily values ​​of precipitation amounts, average temperatures, and relative air humidity for the Qardaha station, located in one of the most important forest areas in the coastal region of Syria, were used to estimate the risk of forest fires using Teliycn index during the years extending between 2000 and 2020. Box-Plots and descriptive statistical analysis were used to study the climatic characteristics of the study area. In order to determine the direction of change and estimate its value, trend lines were used, and the significance of the change was verified using the Mann-Kendall test. The results showed great variation in the start date of the risk of forest fires, the length of the fire season and the degree of danger between years depending on the differences in the amounts and distributions of precipitation and the level of temperatures. The results also showed increasing tendency of fire danger in the region. The highest value of the Teliycn index increased by 25.7, and the length of the fire season increased by about 22 days, while the trend was clear towards an early onset of fire danger by about 7 days during the study period 2000-2020. These results emphasize the importance of current climate changes in increasing the risk of forest fires in the study area, which requires taking appropriate measures to confront this danger that threatens forest ecosystems in the region.

Keywords: forest fires forest – flammability – fire danger index – drought index – Climate change and forest fire -Syria.

Full paper in Arabic: PDF