Michel Skaff 1, Rana Saker 1*, Laila Abboud 1 and Eileen Mahfoud1
1 Faculty of Agricultural Engineering, Latakia University, Latakia , Syria
(*Corresponding author: Rana Saker, E-mail:rana.saker@tishreen.edu.sy ,0993294699).
Received: 19/ 05/ 2025 Accepted: 21/ 07/ 2025
Abstract:
Monthly meteorological data for temperature and precipitation for the period 1958-2018 were used to study changes in temperature and precipitation and their impact on the precipitation effectiveness and drought characteristics in Qamishli. The Thornthwaite index was used to calculate precipitation effectiveness. The Standardized Precipitation Indicex (SPI) and Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI) were used to estimate drought severity and frequency during the study period. Box plots and descriptive statistical analysis were used to study temperature and precipitation characteristics.Trends were used to estimate the direction and value of change in elements and indicators.The significance of change was verified using the Mann-Kendall test.The point change analysis was also used to determine the periods of change.To compare and detect changes between the periods 1958-1988 and 1988-2018, the T-test with probability and the difference in the percentage of drought recurrence were used. The results showed a sharp and significant trend towards declining rainfall efficiency due to rising temperatures and decreasing precipitation. The results also indicated an increase in the severity and frequency of droughts in the last decades.
Keywords: Climate change, Precipitation effectiveness, drought. Syria.
Full paper in Arabic: pdf