Using Box-Jenkins (ARIMA) Models to Forecast Syrian Olive Oil Production and Estimate the Losses Resulting from the Climate Changes and Syrian Crisis

Wael Habib (1) Fayez Al-Mikdad(1) and Mohammad Ghoush(2)    

(1). Scientific Agricultural Research Center in Latakia, (GCSAR). Damascus, Syria.

(2). Agro-Economy, General Commission of Scientific Agricultural Researches, Syria.

(3). Agro-Economy, Tishreen University, Syria.

(*Corresponding author: Dr. Wael Habib. E-Mail:wael.ha76@gmail.com).

Received: 06/08/2020                               Accepted: 01/09/2020

Abstract

The objective of the research is to analyze the time series of olive oil production in Syria (1961-2018) and defining its components and characteristics in order to determine the appropriate predictive mode. In addition to estimate, the predictive value of the supposed production during the period of the Syrian crisis (2011-2018) thus estimating losses as a result of this crisis. The results showed that the time series of olive oil in Syria is not stationary. It characterized by three trends of development, the first is a general trend that tends to rise, and the second is a cyclical trend, ie, biennial bearing (BB). The third is a random trend resulting from abnormal climatic changes or security disturbances. The timing of biennial bearing Phenomena id difficult to predict. It was found that, the BB was responsible for 21.7% of the increase in production in the years of positive /bearing production (the increase above the level of the general production of the series). In contrast, this factor is responsible for 18.9% of the decline in production in the years of negative/nonbearing production. The best model for predicting olive oil production in Syria was ARIMA (3.1.1), but the parameter of the lagYt-2 was insignificant. The self-regression parameters (AR) declare that the behavior of this time series is often determined by its values in the first and third recent years. While the moving average parameters (MA) indicates that, the behavior of the time series (Yt)is often determined in terms of the current random noise and the previous random noise. According to estimates of this model, the total losses of olive oil production in Syria as a result of the Syrian crisis amounted to (277.3) thousands tons. These losses are mostly due to the security unrest and the abnormal climate changes that accompanied the crisis years as well.

Keyword: Olive Production in Syria, Box-Jenkins Models, Time Series, Biennial/Alternative   Bearing, Cyclical Trends.

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General Trending and Forecasting of Climate in Homs Meteo Station

Eissa Nofal(*1)   Maan Daud(1) Boshra khozam(1)

(1). General Commission for scientific Agricultural Research, Syria.

(*Corrsponding author: Eisaa Noafal . E-Mail: issa.mh.nofal@gmail.com).

Received: 05/08/2019              Accepted: 07/09/2019

Abstract

The FORCACT function was used to confirm the equation also the result was identical. There was a negative correlation between dry temperature and precipitation, and dry years exceeded 53.3% but the wet years was 46.6% of the observed years. A prediction equation was found for the quantities of precipitation based on the observed years which was y = – 0.1862x + 368.24. The forecasting for the year 2025 was 360.79 mm / year and therefore the annual rate decreased by 4.688 mm compared with the base years. The forecasting equation matched with the cumulative difference values method in calculating the annual rainfall in 2025 where the equation was: y = – 0.1862 x + 2.8863. Herein, the average of precipitation was 360,843, which is 4.617 mm lower than the average compared with the base years. When the equation of precipitation prediction was derived by applying the three-year moving average method, the resulted equation was: y = – 0.0984 x + 366.91 and when tested with DATA ANALYSIS and MOVING AVEREG the annual average reached 362.9 mm / year in 2025, this means a decrease in the quantity of precipitation of 2.56. mm / year compared with the observed years.

Keywords: Temperature, Precipitation, Forecasting, Regression equation, Moving averages, Homs meteo station.

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Effect of grain type on the mycelium colonization period and productivity of oyster mushroom Pleurotus ostreatus on wheat straw substrate

Louna Rizk Allah Kasoha *1

(1) Biotechnoloy center, Faculty of Agriculture, University of Aleppo, Syria.

 (*Corrsponding author: Louna Kasoha .E-Mail: Lonaty99@hotmail.com).

Received: 31/08/2020                               Accepted: 22/11/2020

Abstract

This research was conducted to produce oyster mushroom spawn using 12 different grain kinds including wheat grain as control, barley, chickpea, lentil, pea, and mixture of wheat +  barley, wheat + chickpea, wheat +  lentil, wheat +  pea, barley +  chickpea, barley +  lentil, and  barley +  pea in rating 50%, to study the effect of these grain spawn on the mycelium growing all over the substrate, moreover, to study the effect of spawn produced from those grain on the productivity on wheat straw substrate and its biological efficiency. The experiments were conducted at Aleppo University – Biotechnology centre, during 2019-2020. The strain 3015 was cultivated on 12 grain mixture types. The experiment was conducted in a complete randomized blocks design, and data were statistically analysed using GENSTAT program and ANOVA tables were calculated. LSD0.05 were used to compare among the means based on each experiment.

The results showed that grain kinds had clear effect on spawn on grain substrate, wheat substrate, and productivity as spawn completed growth after 5.8 days on 50 % barley + 50 % pea and pea substrates which was the shortest and significantly differences from the other grain kinds. Also they were the fastest on spawn growth on wheat substrate as they reach 9.97 and 10.27 days, respectively, and they achieved the highest production of 404.61 and 383 g/kg, respectively. They also gave biological efficiency of 101.15 % and 95.76 %, respectively. Results also showed that spawn growth on substrate with two grain types took shorter time in comparison with growing in substrate consist of one type of grain, which made the two grain kinds substrate enter production stage early and gave higher oyster mushroom production. All these grain substrates were significantly superior wheat grain substrate in production quantity and biological efficiency (higher than 80%), so all these grain spawns were suitable to produce oyster mushroom spawn instead of using wheat grains alone.

Keyword: Grain spawn, Mixtures, oyster mushroom spawn, Mycelium, and productivity.

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Effect of Culture Medium, Mechanical and Chemical Treatments on Germination and Growth of Walnut (Juglans regia L. cv. AlAgami) Seedlings

Wafaa Abedo(1)*

(1). Horticulture department, Faculty of agriculture, university of Aleppo.

(*Corrsponding author: Dr. Wafaa Abedo. E-Mail:madrid198182@yahoo.com).

Received: 30/7/020                                   Accepted: 01/09/2020

Abstract

The research was carried out in the laboratories of Horticulture department in faculty of agriculture, university of Aleppo between 2017- 2018 with the aim of studying the germination and growth of walnut seeds Juglans regia L (Al-Agami), which were planted in two different mediums (Betmus or Perrine) after mechanical processing )seeds completely removed the pericarp and scraped seeds and other with chemical processing (sodium tipochloride or tetra ammonium salt). The results showed the superiority of beatmos medium over perine medium and the completely peeled seeds over scraped seeds. The tetra ammonium salt was the highest in the germination percentage and the other growth characteristics.

Keywords: Walnut, Germination, Agricultural mediums, Seed dormanncy

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Land Suitability Evaluation of Olive Cultivation Using Parametric Methods at Misayaf Area in Hamah Governorate

Alaa Khallouf *(1)Reem Abdul Hamid (2) Waseem Almesaber(3)

 (1) .Department of Natural Resources Research – General Commission for scientific Agricultural Research

 (2) .Department of Horticulture Research – General Commission for scientific Agricultural Research

(3) .Department of Soil Science – Faculty of Agriculture – University of Damascus

(*Corrsponding author: Alaa Khallouf. E-Mail:alaakhallouf@gmail.com).

Received: 04/05/2019                               Accepted:25 /06/2019

Abstract

The research was conducted to study the spatial suitability of olive cultivation at Misayaf area, Hamah governorate. Two types of parametric methods were used: Storie and Square Root. Results were compared with the simple limitation approach. Land was divided according to Zinck in to: level plains unit (PL1, PL2, PL3), unit of valleys and depressions (LD1, LD2, LD3, LV, LF), the hills land unit (Hil2, Hil3, Hilns) and the slope and steeply land unit (Slg2, Slg3, Sm2, Sm3, St). The results of the evaluation showed that the plains of the PL1 deep plains unit, the deep depressions unit of LD1 and the LV sediment were moderately suitable S2 according to the simple constraint method and the Square Root method, while the suitability class was reduced to marginal suitability using Storie method. As for the moderately deep flat plains, low depression LD2, hills Hil2, and foot slops land LF were according to the Simple Constraints and Square Root methods with a marginal suitability S3 and N with Storie method. While the rest of the units were not suitable for using all three methods. When testing the best way to evaluate land by comparing parametric methods with the simple limitation method, correlation results showed that the best method was the Square Root method with a significant correlation coefficient r = 0.903 at 1% confidence level.

Key words: Square root, Land units, Simple limitations, spatial suitability and Olive.

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The Effect of Fortifying Yoghurt with Sesame and Flax Oils and their Effect on Starter Bacteria and Probiotic Bacteria and their Relationship to E. coli

Azhar Ibrahim Shukur*(1) Tariq Zaid Ibrahim (1) and Sumyia Khalaf Badawi(1)

(1). Faculty of Agriculture and Forestry, University of Mosul. Iraq.

(*Corresponding author: Azhar Ibrahim Shukur. E-Mail:azharibrahim333@gmail.com)

Received: 17/05/2020                               Accepted: 14/08/2020

Abstract

This study was carried out at the laboratories of the Department of Food Science in the College of Agriculture and Forestry and the laboratory of Microbiology in the Department of Life Sciences at the University of Mosul. The aim of the study was the manufacturing  of pasteurized milk fortified with flaxseed and sesame oils at a ratio of 1: 5 as rich sources of omega 3 and omega 6 fatty acids, respectively. They were added at 1.5, 2.5 and 3.5% to pasteurized milk. This milk was used to manufacture yogurt using a mixture of Lactobacillus delbrueckii subsp. bulgaricus and Streptococcus salivarius subsp. thermophilus as a starter. The fortified milk was also used to produce acidophilus and bifido ferments using Lactobacillus acidophilus and Bifidobacterium bifidum as starters, respectively. These ferments were produced separately, and as mixture. A pathogenic strain of E. coli was added.

The results showed that the individual addition of B. bifidum, L. acidophilus, L. bulgaricus and S. thermophilus at a percentage of 3% with the oil mixture had no effect on E. coli growth. However, B. bifidum and L. acidophilus had low effect on E. coli. The fortification percent of 3.5% was found to have the highest effect as compared to the other percentages. The results showed that mixing of probiotic bacteria, yoghurt starter and oil mixture with milk had the highest effect on E. coli bacteria.

Key words: Probiotic bacteria, Omega oils, Fortified yoghurt, E. coli.

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Effect of Adding Different Levels of Biotin to The Diet in The Productive Performance of Japanese Quail (Coturnix coturnix japonica) Exposed to Oxidative Stress

Ibrahim Hamza Yasser Al-Awadi (1) and Nihad Abdul-Lateef
Ali Al-Nadawi * (1)

(1). Department of Animal Production, College of Agriculture, Al-Qasim Green
University, Iraq.
(*Corrsponding author: Dr. Nihad Abdul-Lateef Ali Al-Nadawi. E-Mail:
adr.nihad@agre.uoqasim.edu.iq).


Received: 22/10/2020 Accepted: 15/11/2020


Abstract

This experiment was conducted at the poultry farm of the college of Agriculture, University of Al-Qasim Green for the period from 26/9/2019 to 8/11/2019. The study was aimed to the effect of adding different levels of Biotin to the diet in the productive performance of Japanese quail exposed to oxidative stress in the experiment, 300 unsexed Japanese quail birds were used. They were raised together until the age of 8 days and then were randomly distributed to 5 treatments with 3 replicates for each treatment (20 birds replicate). The oxidative stress was induced by adding 0.5% H2O2 to drinking water and the experimental treatments were as follows: The first treatment: Negative control treatment is free of any addition. The second treatment: a positive control treatment adding water with H2O2 at just by only 0.5%. The third, fourth and fifth treatment: adding biotin at a concentration of 500, 600 and 700 micrograms / kg feed + water with H2O2 added at a concentration of 0.5%, respectively. The treatment lasted from 8 to 42 days. The results are as follows: A significant improvement (p≤0.05) for the third, fourth and fifth treatments in the average live body weight in the sixth week and the total weight gain compared to the first treatment and the second treatment, As forthe total feed consumption, we notice the first treatment, the third, the fourth and the fifth treatments recorded significantly improvement (p≤0.05) compared to the second treatment, as well as the third, fourth and fifth treatments, Thebest cumulative feed conversion ratio and production index scale, with a significant difference (p≤0.05) compared to the first treatment and the second treatment.

Key words: Biotin, Productive performance, Japanese quail, Oxidative stress

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The Effect of Early Feeding Using Technically Modified Diets on Live Body Weight and Blood-Immune Parameters of Newcastle Disease in Broiler

Bashir Alboshi(1)

(1). Hamah university, Hamah, Syria

(*Corrsponding author: Bashir Alboshi. E-Mail: Bashir-alboshi@hotmail.com).

Received: 07/10/2020 Accepted: 19/10/2019

Abstract

The experiment was carried out using 300 unsexed chicks of a commercial broiler breed available in Syria, breeding started in 1/9/2018. The chicks were distributed into five groups, each consisting of 60 chicks. The chicks of the five groups were subjected to specific methods during the first 24 hours of age as follows: First group chicks which fasting for the first 24 hours and the second group chicks (traditional diet) feeding using technically modified diet (5% gel materials, 50% water and 45% basal diet without adding any food products studied), the third group (glycerin 5%) feeding using technically modified diet with the same composition of the diet in the second group with 5% glycerin, the fourth group (egg powder 5%) feeding using technically modified diet with the same composition of the diet in the second group with 5% egg powder, and the fifth group (glycerin 5% and egg powder 5%) feeding using technically modified diet with the same composition of the diet in the second group with 5% glycerin and 5% egg powder. for 24 h after hatching. After that, all chicks of the five groups were provided with a broiler diet for each age stage until the experiment was completed at the age of 42 days. Results showed a positive significant (P≤0.01) in the live body weight of the chicks of the groups fed technically modified diets at the end of the first week compared with the group chicks that had fasting the first 24 hours of age, while only live body weight in the birds of the second group (control technically modified diet) significantly (p≤0.01) compared to the first group which fasting first 24 hours at the end of the sixth week. The immunological results indicated a significant effect (P≤0.01) in the immunosuppressive antibodies of Newcastle disease in all groups that gave them technically modified diets compared to the first group which fasting first 24 hours of life. In addition, early feeding by using technically modified diets contributed to speed up the immune response of the Newcastle vaccine in chicks compared with chicks that fasting in first 24 hours and thus contribute to the evolution of the immune system in birds.

Keyword: Broiler chicks, Early feeding, Glycerin, Egg powder, Immune system.

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Pathological Assessments of Ovine Liver Abscesses in Basra Abattoir

Sanaa K. Kadhim(1) and Jihad A. Ahmed*(1)

(1). Department of Pathology and Poultry diseases, Veterinary Medicine College, University of Basrah, Iraq.

(*Corrsponding author: Dr. Jihad Abdulameer Ahmed. E-Mail: jihad.ahmed@uobasrah.edu.iq).

Received: 22/9/2020 Accepted: 15/11/2020

Abstract

This study was conducted to find out the macroscopical and microscopical lesion as well as the pathological lesions, the hematological study, biochemical analysis, the histopathological study and histochemical study of liver abscesses in sheep. A regular visits were done to Al-Basrah abattoir during the period from October 2019 to January 2020 in which routine postmortem examination to slaughtered sheep was carried out. The livers from sheep showing pathological lesions or abnormalities were collected and thoroughly examined. The liver from 70 sheep were collected and thoroughly examined, sixty of them showed gross lesions (from left and right liver equally), other ten were normal in texture and morphology, used as a control. Our hematological results appear a significant (P≤0.05) increment in the total white blood cells counts (18.4±0.76) , lymphocytes counts (7.96±0.31) and neutrophils counts (8.11± 0.16) of ovine liver abscess group when compared to the control group which appear the total white blood cells counts, lymphocytes counts, and neutrophils counts were (11.16±0.47), (6.04±0.2) and (3.61±0.12) respectively. In addition, the results of the biochemical analysis of the study showed significant (P≤0.05) increase of Alanine aminotransferase (ALT) (48.5±5.4), Aspartate aminotransferase (AST) (32±1.9), C-Reactive Protein (CRP) (4.37±0.3) and lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) (195.3±1.19) of ovine liver abscess (OLA) group when compared to the control group were showed the ALT (19.0±0.5), AST (21.3±1.8), CRP (1.63±0.1) and LDH (169.3±14.8). The macroscopical results of our study of ovine liver abscess showed the plurality of these affected livers had a solo to multiple abscess formation; therefore, the grossly manifest on their surfaces which purulent material and a tender capsule with necrotic tissues in the central area. Besides, the gross examination revealed significant findings of necrotic cavity with a perceptible fibrous wall were observed in liver and multiple abscesses especially surrounded the biliary canal. The histopathological result of ovine liver abscess revealed a dilation of central vein filled with infiltration of inflammatory cells in the per-portal region, in addition, there are a present of a thick fibrous capsule formation surrounded abscess formation of the liver with inflammatory zone consist mainly polymorphnuclear cells surrounded the abscess capsule of the liver, also a present of large area of abscess formation in the liver parenchyma, which stained also positively in Mallory trichrome stain. The current study concluded that the ovine liver abscesses associated with dangerous increases in the cardinal hematological and biochemical biomarkers as an indicator to the harmful affection of the liver diseased with pyogenic infection.

Key words: Ovine liver abscess (OLA) , Biochemical, Hematology, Pathology.

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A Study on the Prevalence of Subclinical Mastitis and Determining its Etiology in Dairy Cows in Damascus Countryside Governorate (Syria)

Mouhamad AL Masalam* (1) and Abeer Haddad (1)

(1).Directorate of Animal Health -Central Veterinary Laboratories.Ministry of Agriculture and Agrarian Reform, Damascus, Syria.

(*Corrsponding author: Dr. Mouhammad Al Masalma. E-Mail: almasalma@gmail.com ).

Received: 30/08/2020 Accepted: 15/09/2020

Abstract

Subclinical mastitis is a global problem in dairy farms. This study aimed to determine the prevalence of subclinical mastitis in dairy cows raised in individual breeding systems by farmers in the Damascus countryside governorate and to isolate and diagnose the causative agents of this infection during the period from the beginning of July 2017 to the end of August 2018. 800 milk samples were collected aseptically from apparently healthy 200 cows. Samples were subjected to California Mastitis Test (CMT) and bacteriological analysis. Subclinical mastitis was found in 65% of cows and in 18.75 % of quarters. Microbiological analysis showed that there was a wide range of organism that cause subclinical mastitis in cows. In total; 153 isolates were identified. Staphylococcus species were the most frequently isolated (52.28%), followed by Streptococcus species (20.91%), then members of Enterobacteriaceae family (15.68%), then fungi (7.17%) and other types of germs (3.93%). The results of the current study showed a high prevalence rate of subclinical mastitis in dairy cows and highlighted the importance of regular screening for subclinical mastitis to detect and treat these cases, in addition to the importance of hygiene, sterilization and improvement of health care conditions in cattle farms.

Keyword: Mastitis, Bacterial culture, California test, Dairy cows.

Full paper in Arabic: PDF