Prediction of tobacco crop production in Syria using (ARIMA) model analysis

Majd Namaa (1)* , Ghassan Yacoub (1) and Ayman Achouch(2)

(1) Dep. Agricultural Economics., Fac.     Syria   Agric., Tishreen Univ., Lattakia, Syria.   

(2)  Professor,Dep. Statistics and Programming , Fac. Economic., Tishreen Univ., Lattakia,  Syria.   

(* Corresponding auther: Ibrahim Mhanna. E-mail:

 Received: 20/01/2020                          Accepted:22/03/20


The objective of the research is was  to predict the production and area of ​​tobacco production in the Syrian Arab Republic for the period (2019-2027) using ARIMA analysis, based on time series data on production and cultivated area for the period 1975-2017.The research was based primarily on the secondary data of FAO, based on the descriptive method of analysis in both descriptive and quantitative terms, using the linear analysis of the time series regression function in its various mathematical images, as well as using Box-Jenkins method to predict future values ​​of production The maximal Likelihood Estimation (MLE) for Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models.Results showed that the best predictive models of production and cultivated area during the required period were ARIMA (2.2,2)According to the selected model, the production volume in 2019 will reach 9130.9 tons between a minimum of 3056.9 tons and a maximum of 15205.0 tons, and it will continue to decline until 2025 to reach 920.0 tons and increase again in 2026 to 6766.4 tons between a  minimum of 6579.3 tons and a maximum of 7932.0 tons, and then returns to decline again in the year (2027) to 2281.4 tons.The cultivated area will reach 2,736.9 hectares in the year 2019 to a minimum of 3010.4 ha and a maximum of 11,236.5 ha. It will continue to decline until 2088 to reach 3588.5 hectares. This will increase again in 2026 to 4966.7 hectares between a minimum of 4553.5 ha and maximum of 10487.0 hectares and it is expected  to decline in 2027 to reach 3830.5 hectares between a minimum of 3623.6 and maximum of 10284.5 hectares.

Keywords: Tobacco, Prediction, Time series, Models of Box Jenkis, ARIMA.

Full paper in Arabic: PDF