An assessment of changes in drought intensity and frequency in Syrian Aljazeera region (AlHassaka and AlQamshli) during the period 1957-2012

Rama barakat(1) * and  Michael skaf  (1)

(1).Department of forestry and environment Faculty of Agriculture, Tishreen University, Lattakia, Syria .

 (*Corrsponding author: Rama barakat. E-Mail:Rama-barakat@tishreen.edu.sy)

Received: 05/11/2019                    Accepted: 12/03/2020

Abstract

Drought is considered as the most adverse meteorological phenomenon affecting water resources, agricultural production and natural ecosystems. Monthly precipitation and temperature data for two major stations in Syrian Aljazeera region were used to determine spatiotemporal characteristics of drought during the period 1957-2012. Water balance anomaly index (WBAI) was applied to evaluate drought intensity at seasonal and annual time scales. Trends with Mann-Kendall test were used to detect changes in drought intensity. Whereas logistic distribution was computed for two period (1958-1985 and 1985-2012), to estimate changes in drought frequency. ┬áResults showed significant changes in drought – characteristics in the study region. The annual drought intensity had increased because tendency in drought index values decreased by (-1.98, -1.77) during winter and (-1.9, -2.61) during spring in AlHassaka and AlQamshli respectively. At the same time increment in extreme drought frequency versus diminishing frequency of extreme moisture was observed in both meteorological stations. These changes will negatively affect crop, rangeland productivity, and water resources, it will also pose a big challenge to the sustainable development in that region.

Keywords: climate change-drought- AlHassaka-AlQamshli-Syria.

Full paper in Arabic: PDF