{"id":4925,"date":"2021-09-09T09:26:05","date_gmt":"2021-09-09T06:26:05","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/agri-research-journal.net\/?p=4925"},"modified":"2021-09-09T09:26:05","modified_gmt":"2021-09-09T06:26:05","slug":"%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%aa%d9%86%d8%a8%d8%a4-%d8%a8%d8%a5%d9%86%d8%aa%d8%a7%d8%ac-%d9%85%d8%ad%d8%b5%d9%88%d9%84-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%aa%d8%a8%d8%ba-%d9%81%d9%8a-%d8%b3%d9%88%d8%b1%d9%8a%d8%a9-%d8%a8%d8%a7%d8%b3","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/agri-research-journal.net\/sjar\/?p=4925","title":{"rendered":"\u0627\u0644\u062a\u0646\u0628\u0624 \u0628\u0625\u0646\u062a\u0627\u062c \u0645\u062d\u0635\u0648\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0628\u063a \u0641\u064a \u0633\u0648\u0631\u064a\u0629 \u0628\u0627\u0633\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0627\u0645 \u00a0\u062a\u062d\u0644\u064a\u0644 \u0646\u0645\u0627\u0630\u062c (ARIMA)"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 \u0645\u062c\u062f \u0641\u0627\u0637\u0631 \u0646\u0639\u0627\u0645\u0629 *<sup>(1) <\/sup>\u00a0\u0648\u063a\u0633\u0627\u0646 \u062e\u0644\u064a\u0644 \u064a\u0639\u0642\u0648\u0628<sup>(1)<\/sup>\u00a0 \u0648\u0623\u064a\u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0634\u0639\u0648\u0634<sup>(2)<\/sup><\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\u0642\u0633\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0642\u062a\u0635\u0627\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0631\u0627\u0639\u064a\u060c \u0643\u0644\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0631\u0627\u0639\u0629\u060c \u062c\u0627\u0645\u0639\u0629 \u062a\u0634\u0631\u064a\u0646\u060c \u0633\u0648\u0631\u064a\u0629.<\/li>\n<li>\u0642\u0633\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0625\u062d\u0635\u0627\u0621 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0628\u0631\u0645\u062c\u0629\u060c \u0643\u0644\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0642\u062a\u0635\u0627\u062f\u060c \u062c\u0627\u0645\u0639\u0629 \u062a\u0634\u0631\u064a\u0646\u060c \u0633\u0648\u0631\u064a\u0629.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>(*\u0644\u0644\u0645\u0631\u0627\u0633\u0644\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0628\u0627\u062d\u062b \u0645\u062c\u062f \u0646\u0639\u0627\u0645\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0628\u0631\u064a\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0644\u0643\u062a\u0631\u0648\u0646\u064a \ud83d\ude41<u> mjd.namaa.90@gmail.com<\/u><\/p>\n<p>\u062a\u0627\u0631\u064a\u062e \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0633\u062a\u0644\u0627\u0645: 20\/01\/2020\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0\u062a\u0627\u0631\u064a\u062e \u0627\u0644\u0642\u0628\u0648\u0644: 22\/03\/2020<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u0627\u0644\u0645\u0644\u062e\u0635:<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u0647\u062f\u0641 \u0627\u0644\u0628\u062d\u062b \u0625\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0646\u0628\u0624 \u0628\u0645\u0633\u0627\u062d\u0629 \u0648\u0625\u0646\u062a\u0627\u062c \u0645\u062d\u0635\u0648\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0628\u063a \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0645\u0633\u062a\u0648\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u062c\u0645\u0647\u0648\u0631\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0631\u0628\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0648\u0631\u064a\u0629 \u0644\u0644\u0641\u062a\u0631\u0629 \u0645\u0627 \u0628\u064a\u0646 (2019-2027) \u0628\u0627\u0633\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0627\u0645 \u062a\u062d\u0644\u064a\u0644 \u0646\u0645\u0627\u0630\u062cARIMA \u060c \u0628\u0627\u0644\u0627\u0639\u062a\u0645\u0627\u062f \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0628\u064a\u0627\u0646\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0627\u0633\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0645\u0646\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062e\u0627\u0635\u0629 \u0628\u0627\u0644\u0645\u0633\u0627\u062d\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0632\u0631\u0648\u0639\u0629 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0625\u0646\u062a\u0627\u062c \u0644\u0644\u0641\u062a\u0631\u0629 \u0645\u0627 \u0628\u064a\u0646 (1975-2017)\u061b \u062a\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0639\u062a\u0645\u0627\u062f \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0628\u062d\u062b \u0628\u0635\u0641\u0629 \u0623\u0633\u0627\u0633\u064a\u0629 \u0639\u0644\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0628\u064a\u0627\u0646\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u062b\u0627\u0646\u0648\u064a\u0629 \u0644\u0645\u0646\u0638\u0645\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u063a\u0630\u064a\u0629 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0632\u0631\u0627\u0639\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0627\u0644\u0645\u064a\u0629 (FAO) \u060c \u00a0\u0648\u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u0637\u0631\u064a\u0642\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0625\u0633\u062a\u0642\u0631\u0627\u0626\u064a\u0629 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u062a\u062d\u0644\u064a\u0644 \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0627\u062d\u064a\u062a\u064a\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0648\u0635\u0641\u064a\u0629 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0643\u0645\u064a\u0629\u060c \u0628\u0627\u0633\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0627\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u062d\u0644\u064a\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u062e\u0637\u064a \u0644\u062f\u0648\u0627\u0644 \u0627\u0646\u062d\u062f\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0627\u0633\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0645\u0646\u064a\u0629 \u0641\u064a \u0635\u0648\u0631\u0647\u0627 \u0627\u0644\u0631\u064a\u0627\u0636\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062e\u062a\u0644\u0641\u0629\u060c \u0648\u0643\u0630\u0644\u0643 \u0627\u0633\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0627\u0645 \u0623\u0633\u0644\u0648\u0628 \u0628\u0648\u0643\u0633 \u062c\u064a\u0646\u0643\u0646\u0632 Box-Jenkins \u0644\u0644\u062a\u0646\u0628\u0624 \u0628\u0627\u0644\u0642\u064a\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0633\u062a\u0642\u0628\u0644\u064a\u0629 \u0644\u0644\u0625\u0646\u062a\u0627\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0631\u0627\u0639\u064a \u0628\u0627\u0633\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0627\u0645 \u0637\u0631\u064a\u0642\u0629 \u062a\u0642\u062f\u064a\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0625\u0645\u0643\u0627\u0646\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0638\u0645\u0649 ((MLE Maximum Likelihood Estimated \u0644\u0646\u0645\u0627\u0630\u062c \u062a\u0643\u0627\u0645\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0646\u062d\u062f\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0630\u0627\u062a\u064a- \u0644\u0644\u0648\u0633\u0637 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u062d\u0631\u0643 Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA)\u061b \u0628\u064a\u0646\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0646\u062a\u0627\u0626\u062c \u0623\u0646 \u0623\u0641\u0636\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0627\u0630\u062c \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0646\u0628\u0624\u064a\u0629 \u0628\u0627\u0644\u0645\u0633\u0627\u062d\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0632\u0631\u0648\u0639\u0629 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0625\u0646\u062a\u0627\u062c \u062e\u0644\u0627\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0641\u062a\u0631\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062f\u0631\u0648\u0633\u0629 \u0647\u064a ARIMA (2\u060c2\u060c2).\u0648\u0648\u0641\u0642\u0627 \u0644\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062e\u062a\u0627\u0631 \u0641\u0625\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0633\u0627\u062d\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0632\u0631\u0648\u0639\u0629 \u0633\u062a\u0635\u0644 \u0639\u0627\u0645(2019) \u0625\u0644\u0649 7136.9 \u0647\u0643\u062a\u0627\u0631 \u0645\u0627 \u0628\u064a\u0646 \u062d\u062f \u0623\u062f\u0646\u0649 3010.4 \u0647\u0643\u062a\u0627\u0631 \u0648\u062d\u062f \u0623\u0639\u0644\u0649 11236.5 \u0647\u0643\u062a\u0627\u0631\u060c \u0643\u0645\u0627 \u0623\u0646\u0647\u0627 \u0633\u062a\u0633\u062a\u0645\u0631 \u0628\u0627\u0644\u0627\u0646\u062e\u0641\u0627\u0636 \u062d\u062a\u0649 \u0639\u0627\u0645 (2025) \u0644\u062a\u0635\u0644 \u0625\u0644\u0649 3588.5 \u0647\u0643\u062a\u0627\u0631\u060c \u0644\u062a\u0639\u0648\u062f \u0644\u0644\u0627\u0631\u062a\u0641\u0627\u0639 \u0645\u0631\u0629 \u0623\u062e\u0631\u0649 \u0639\u0627\u0645 (2026) \u0644\u062a\u0635\u0644 \u0625\u0644\u0649 4966.7 \u0647\u0643\u062a\u0627\u0631 \u0645\u0627 \u0628\u064a\u0646 \u062d\u062f \u0623\u062f\u0646\u0649 4553.5 \u0647\u0643\u062a\u0627\u0631 \u0648\u0623\u0639\u0644\u0649 10487.0 \u0647\u0643\u062a\u0627\u0631 \u0648\u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u0648\u0642\u0639 \u0623\u0646 \u062a\u0646\u062e\u0641\u0636 \u0639\u0627\u0645 (2027) \u0644\u062a\u0635\u0644 \u0625\u0644\u0649 3830.5 \u0647\u0643\u062a\u0627\u0631 \u0645\u0627 \u0628\u064a\u0646 \u062d\u062f \u0623\u062f\u0646\u0649\u00a0 3623.6 \u0648\u0623\u0639\u0644\u0649 10284.5 \u0647\u0643\u062a\u0627\u0631. \u0623\u0645\u0627 \u062d\u062c\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0625\u0646\u062a\u0627\u062c \u0633\u064a\u0628\u0644\u063a \u0639\u0627\u0645 (2019 ) 9130.9 \u0637\u0646 \u0645\u0627 \u0628\u064a\u0646 \u062d\u062f \u0623\u062f\u0646\u0649 3056.9 \u0637\u0646 \u0648\u062d\u062f \u0623\u0639\u0644\u0649 15205.0 \u0637\u0646\u060c \u0643\u0645\u0627 \u0627\u0646\u0647 \u0633\u064a\u0633\u062a\u0645\u0631 \u0628\u0627\u0644\u0627\u0646\u062e\u0641\u0627\u0636 \u062d\u062a\u0649 \u0639\u0627\u0645 (2025) \u0644\u064a\u0635\u0644 \u0625\u0644\u0649 920.0 \u0637\u0646 \u0644\u064a\u0639\u0648\u062f \u0644\u0644\u0627\u0631\u062a\u0641\u0627\u0639 \u0645\u0631\u0629 \u0623\u062e\u0631\u0649 \u0639\u0627\u0645<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">( 2026) \u0644\u064a\u0635\u0644 \u0625\u0644\u0649 6766.4\u0637\u0646 \u0645\u0627 \u0628\u064a\u0646 \u062d\u062f \u0623\u062f\u0646\u0649 6579.3 \u0637\u0646 \u0648\u0623\u0639\u0644\u0649 7932.0 \u0637\u0646\u060c \u0648\u0645\u0646 \u062b\u0645 \u064a\u0639\u0648\u062f \u0644\u0644\u0627\u0646\u062e\u0641\u0627\u0636 \u0645\u0631\u0629 \u0623\u062e\u0631\u0649 \u0639\u0627\u0645( 2027) \u0644\u064a\u0635\u0644 \u0625\u0644\u0649 2281.4 \u0637\u0646.<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u0627\u0644\u0643\u0644\u0645\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0641\u062a\u0627\u062d\u064a\u0629:<\/strong> \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0628\u063a\u060c \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0646\u0628\u0624\u060c \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0627\u0633\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0645\u0646\u064a\u0629\u060c \u0646\u0645\u0627\u0630\u062c \u0628\u0648\u0643\u0633 \u062c\u064a\u0646\u0643\u0646\u0632\u060c (ARIMA).<\/p>\n<p>\u0627\u0644\u0628\u062d\u062b \u0643\u0627\u0645\u0644\u0627\u064b \u0628\u0627\u0644\u0644\u063a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0631\u0628\u064a\u0629: <a href=\"https:\/\/agri-research-journal.net\/sjar\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/09\/v8n4p21.pdf\">pdf<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u00a0 \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 \u0645\u062c\u062f \u0641\u0627\u0637\u0631 \u0646\u0639\u0627\u0645\u0629 *(1) \u00a0\u0648\u063a\u0633\u0627\u0646 \u062e\u0644\u064a\u0644 \u064a\u0639\u0642\u0648\u0628(1)\u00a0 \u0648\u0623\u064a\u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0634\u0639\u0648\u0634(2) \u0642\u0633\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0642\u062a\u0635\u0627\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0631\u0627\u0639\u064a\u060c \u0643\u0644\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0631\u0627\u0639\u0629\u060c \u062c\u0627\u0645\u0639\u0629 \u062a\u0634\u0631\u064a\u0646\u060c \u0633\u0648\u0631\u064a\u0629. \u0642\u0633\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0625\u062d\u0635\u0627\u0621 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0628\u0631\u0645\u062c\u0629\u060c \u0643\u0644\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0642\u062a\u0635\u0627\u062f\u060c \u062c\u0627\u0645\u0639\u0629 \u062a\u0634\u0631\u064a\u0646\u060c \u0633\u0648\u0631\u064a\u0629. (*\u0644\u0644\u0645\u0631\u0627\u0633\u0644\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0628\u0627\u062d\u062b \u0645\u062c\u062f \u0646\u0639\u0627\u0645\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0628\u0631\u064a\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0644\u0643\u062a\u0631\u0648\u0646\u064a \ud83d\ude41 mjd.namaa.90@gmail.com \u062a\u0627\u0631\u064a\u062e \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0633\u062a\u0644\u0627\u0645: 20\/01\/2020\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/agri-research-journal.net\/sjar\/?p=4925\">\u0623\u0643\u0645\u0644 \u0642\u0631\u0627\u0621\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0642\u0627\u0644\u0629 <span class=\"meta-nav\">&larr;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4925","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-1"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/agri-research-journal.net\/sjar\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4925","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/agri-research-journal.net\/sjar\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/agri-research-journal.net\/sjar\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/agri-research-journal.net\/sjar\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/agri-research-journal.net\/sjar\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=4925"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/agri-research-journal.net\/sjar\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4925\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":4930,"href":"https:\/\/agri-research-journal.net\/sjar\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4925\/revisions\/4930"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/agri-research-journal.net\/sjar\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=4925"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/agri-research-journal.net\/sjar\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=4925"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/agri-research-journal.net\/sjar\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=4925"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}