{"id":2003,"date":"2018-04-01T08:26:10","date_gmt":"2018-04-01T05:26:10","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/agri-research-journal.net\/?p=2003"},"modified":"2018-04-01T08:26:10","modified_gmt":"2018-04-01T05:26:10","slug":"%d8%a7%d8%b3%d8%aa%d8%ae%d8%af%d8%a7%d9%85-%d9%86%d9%85%d8%a7%d8%b0%d8%ac-arima-%d9%84%d9%84%d8%aa%d9%86%d8%a8%d8%a4-%d8%a8%d8%a5%d9%86%d8%aa%d8%a7%d8%ac-%d9%85%d8%ad%d8%b5%d9%88%d9%84-%d8%a7%d9%84","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/agri-research-journal.net\/sjar\/?p=2003","title":{"rendered":"\u0627\u0633\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0627\u0645 \u0646\u0645\u0627\u0630\u062c ARIMA \u0644\u0644\u062a\u0646\u0628\u0624 \u0628\u0625\u0646\u062a\u0627\u062c \u0645\u062d\u0635\u0648\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0642\u0637\u0646 \u0641\u064a \u0633\u0648\u0631\u064a\u0629"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u0633\u0644\u0648\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062d\u0645\u062f<\/strong>(1) <\/sup><\/strong>\u0648<\/strong>\u0627\u0628\u062a\u0633\u0627\u0645 \u062c\u0627\u0633\u0645*(<\/sup><\/strong>2)<\/sup><\/strong> \u0648\u0645\u064a \u0644\u0628\u0633(2)<\/sup><\/strong><\/p>\n

(1). \u0642\u0633\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0642\u062a\u0635\u0627\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0631\u0627\u0639\u064a\u060c \u0643\u0644\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0631\u0627\u0639\u0629\u060c \u062c\u0627\u0645\u0639\u0629 \u062d\u0644\u0628\u060c \u062d\u0644\u0628\u060c \u0633\u0648\u0631\u064a\u0629.<\/p>\n

(2). \u0625\u062f\u0627\u0631\u0629 \u0628\u062d\u0648\u062b \u0627\u0644\u0642\u0637\u0646\u060c \u0627\u0644\u0647\u064a\u0626\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0627\u0645\u0629 \u0644\u0644\u0628\u062d\u0648\u062b \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0644\u0645\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0631\u0627\u0639\u064a\u0629\u060c \u062f\u0645\u0634\u0642\u060c \u0633\u0648\u0631\u064a\u0629.<\/p>\n

(*\u0644\u0644\u0645\u0631\u0627\u0633\u0644\u0629: \u062f. \u0627\u0628\u062a\u0633\u0627\u0645 \u062c\u0627\u0633\u0645. \u0627\u0644\u0628\u0631\u064a\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0625\u0644\u0643\u062a\u0631\u0648\u0646\u064a: e_sam_0<\/strong>@hotmail.com<\/strong><\/a>).<\/p>\n

\u00a0\u062a\u0627\u0631\u064a\u062e \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0633\u062a\u0644\u0627\u0645: 31\/12\/2016\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 \u062a\u0627\u0631\u064a\u062e \u0627\u0644\u0642\u0628\u0648\u0644:\u00a0 25\/01\/2017<\/p>\n

\u0627\u0644\u0645\u0644\u062e\u0635<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u0627\u0643\u062a\u0633\u0628 \u0645\u0648\u0636\u0648\u0639 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0646\u0628\u0624 \u0623\u0647\u0645\u064a\u0629 \u0643\u0628\u064a\u0631\u0629 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0631\u0627\u0633\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0642\u062a\u0635\u0627\u062f\u064a\u0629\u060c \u062d\u064a\u062b \u0623\u0646\u0647 \u064a\u0645\u0643\u0651\u0646 \u0623\u0635\u062d\u0627\u0628 \u0627\u0644\u0642\u0631\u0627\u0631 \u0645\u0646 \u0631\u0633\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u064a\u0627\u0633\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0642\u062a\u0635\u0627\u062f\u064a\u0629 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0627\u062c\u062a\u0645\u0627\u0639\u064a\u0629 \u0644\u0644\u0641\u062a\u0631\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0642\u0628\u0644\u0629 \u0627\u0639\u062a\u0645\u0627\u062f\u0627\u064b \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0628\u064a\u0627\u0646\u0627\u062a \u0645\u062a\u0648\u0641\u0631\u0629 \u0639\u0646 \u062a\u0627\u0631\u064a\u062e \u0627\u0644\u0638\u0627\u0647\u0631\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062f\u0631\u0648\u0633\u0629. \u062d\u064a\u062b \u0638\u0647\u0631\u062a \u0623\u0633\u0627\u0644\u064a\u0628 \u0643\u062b\u064a\u0631\u0629 \u0644\u0644\u062a\u0646\u0628\u0624 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0642\u062a\u0635\u0627\u062f\u064a\u060c \u0645\u0646 \u0623\u0628\u0631\u0632\u0647\u0627 \u0646\u0645\u0627\u0630\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0646\u062d\u062f\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0630\u0627\u062a\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u0643\u0627\u0645\u0644 \u0645\u0639 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u0648\u0633\u0637\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u062d\u0631\u0643\u0629 Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA). \u062a\u0639\u062a\u0645\u062f \u0647\u0630\u0647 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0646\u0647\u062c\u064a\u0629 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0645\u062c \u0628\u064a\u0646 \u0646\u0645\u0627\u0630\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0646\u062d\u062f\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0630\u0627\u062a\u064a \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u0648\u0633\u0637\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u062d\u0631\u0643\u0629. \u0627\u0644\u0647\u062f\u0641 \u0645\u0646 \u0647\u0630\u0627 \u0627\u0644\u0628\u062d\u062b \u0627\u0633\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0627\u0645 \u0646\u0645\u0627\u0630\u062c ARIMA \u0644\u0644\u062a\u0646\u0628\u0624 \u0628\u0625\u0646\u062a\u0627\u062c \u0648\u0625\u0646\u062a\u0627\u062c\u064a\u0629 \u0648\u0645\u0633\u0627\u062d\u0629 \u0645\u062d\u0635\u0648\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0642\u0637\u0646 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0645\u0633\u062a\u0648\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u062c\u0645\u0647\u0648\u0631\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0631\u0628\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0648\u0631\u064a\u0629\u060c \u062b\u0645 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0645\u0633\u062a\u0648\u0649 \u0623\u0647\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062d\u0627\u0641\u0638\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0646\u062a\u062c\u0629 \u0644\u0647: \u0627\u0644\u062d\u0633\u0643\u0629\u060c \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0631\u0642\u0629\u060c \u0648\u062d\u0644\u0628\u060c \u0648\u0645\u0646\u0637\u0642\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u063a\u0627\u0628\u060c \u0644\u0645\u0627 \u062a\u0645\u062a\u0627\u0632 \u0628\u0647 \u0647\u0630\u0647 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0627\u0630\u062c \u0645\u0646 \u062f\u0642\u0629 \u0639\u0627\u0644\u064a\u0629 \u0641\u064a \u062a\u062d\u0644\u064a\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0627\u0633\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0645\u0646\u064a\u0629 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u062a\u0646\u0628\u0624. \u062a\u0645 \u0627\u0633\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0627\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0628\u064a\u0627\u0646\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0646\u0648\u064a\u0629 \u0644\u0625\u0646\u062a\u0627\u062c \u0648\u0625\u0646\u062a\u0627\u062c\u064a\u0629 \u0648\u0645\u0633\u0627\u062d\u0629 \u0645\u062d\u0635\u0648\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0642\u0637\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0631\u0648\u064a \u0644\u0644\u0641\u062a\u0631\u0629 (2012-1985). \u062a\u0628\u064a\u0651\u0646 \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u062a\u0627\u0626\u062c \u0623\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c ARIMA (1.0.0) \u0647\u0648 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0643\u062b\u0631 \u0645\u0644\u0627\u0626\u0645\u0629 \u0644\u0644\u062a\u0646\u0628\u0624 \u0628\u062a\u0637\u0648\u0631 \u0625\u0646\u062a\u0627\u062c \u0648\u0625\u0646\u062a\u0627\u062c\u064a\u0629 \u0648\u0645\u0633\u0627\u062d\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0642\u0637\u0646 \u0641\u064a \u0633\u0648\u0631\u064a\u0629 \u062d\u062a\u0649 \u0639\u0627\u0645 2020 \u062d\u0633\u0628 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u062e\u062a\u0628\u0627\u0631\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0625\u062d\u0635\u0627\u0626\u064a\u0629 \u0644\u062f\u0642\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0627\u0630\u062c \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0646\u0628\u0624\u064a\u0629. \u0648\u062a\u0634\u064a\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u062a\u0627\u0626\u062c \u0625\u0644\u0649 \u0632\u064a\u0627\u062f\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0633\u0627\u062d\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0632\u0631\u0648\u0639\u0629 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0625\u0646\u062a\u0627\u062c\u064a\u0629 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0625\u0646\u062a\u0627\u062c \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0642\u0637\u0646 \u0641\u064a \u0633\u0648\u0631\u064a\u0629 \u062d\u0633\u0628 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0642\u062a\u0631\u062d \u062e\u0644\u0627\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0646\u0648\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u062b\u0645\u0627\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0642\u0627\u062f\u0645\u0629\u060c \u0648\u0628\u0645\u0639\u062f\u0644 \u0646\u0645\u0648 \u0633\u0646\u0648\u064a \u0623\u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0645\u0646 \u0645\u0639\u062f\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0646\u0648\u064a \u0644\u0644\u0641\u062a\u0631\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062f\u0631\u0648\u0633\u0629 (2012-1985)\u060c \u062d\u064a\u062b \u0628\u0644\u063a \u0645\u0639\u062f\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0646\u0648\u064a \u0644\u0644\u0645\u0633\u0627\u062d\u0629 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0625\u0646\u062a\u0627\u062c (0.48 % \u06480.30 %) \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0648\u0627\u0644\u064a.<\/p>\n

\u0627\u0644\u0643\u0644\u0645\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0641\u062a\u0627\u062d\u064a\u0629<\/strong>: \u0646\u0645\u0627\u0630\u062c ARIMA\u060c \u0627\u0644\u0642\u0637\u0646\u060c \u0633\u0648\u0631\u064a\u0629.<\/p>\n

\u0627\u0644\u0628\u062d\u062b \u0643\u0627\u0645\u0644\u0627\u064b \u0628\u0627\u0644\u0644\u063a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0631\u0628\u064a\u0629:<\/span> PDF<\/span><\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u0633\u0644\u0648\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062d\u0645\u062f(1) \u0648\u0627\u0628\u062a\u0633\u0627\u0645 \u062c\u0627\u0633\u0645*(2) \u0648\u0645\u064a \u0644\u0628\u0633(2) (1). \u0642\u0633\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0642\u062a\u0635\u0627\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0631\u0627\u0639\u064a\u060c \u0643\u0644\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0631\u0627\u0639\u0629\u060c \u062c\u0627\u0645\u0639\u0629 \u062d\u0644\u0628\u060c \u062d\u0644\u0628\u060c \u0633\u0648\u0631\u064a\u0629. (2). \u0625\u062f\u0627\u0631\u0629 \u0628\u062d\u0648\u062b \u0627\u0644\u0642\u0637\u0646\u060c \u0627\u0644\u0647\u064a\u0626\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0627\u0645\u0629 \u0644\u0644\u0628\u062d\u0648\u062b \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0644\u0645\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0631\u0627\u0639\u064a\u0629\u060c \u062f\u0645\u0634\u0642\u060c \u0633\u0648\u0631\u064a\u0629. (*\u0644\u0644\u0645\u0631\u0627\u0633\u0644\u0629: \u062f. \u0627\u0628\u062a\u0633\u0627\u0645 \u062c\u0627\u0633\u0645. \u0627\u0644\u0628\u0631\u064a\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0625\u0644\u0643\u062a\u0631\u0648\u0646\u064a: e_sam_0@hotmail.com). \u00a0\u062a\u0627\u0631\u064a\u062e \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0633\u062a\u0644\u0627\u0645: 31\/12\/2016\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 \u062a\u0627\u0631\u064a\u062e \u0627\u0644\u0642\u0628\u0648\u0644:\u00a0 25\/01\/2017 … \u0623\u0643\u0645\u0644 \u0642\u0631\u0627\u0621\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0642\u0627\u0644\u0629 ←<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[572,171],"tags":[441,145,583],"class_list":["post-2003","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category----2018","category-171","tag-441","tag-145","tag--arima"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/agri-research-journal.net\/sjar\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2003","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/agri-research-journal.net\/sjar\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/agri-research-journal.net\/sjar\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/agri-research-journal.net\/sjar\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/agri-research-journal.net\/sjar\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=2003"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/agri-research-journal.net\/sjar\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2003\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2004,"href":"https:\/\/agri-research-journal.net\/sjar\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2003\/revisions\/2004"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/agri-research-journal.net\/sjar\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=2003"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/agri-research-journal.net\/sjar\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=2003"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/agri-research-journal.net\/sjar\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=2003"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}