{"id":2928,"date":"2021-01-17T17:10:41","date_gmt":"2021-01-17T17:10:41","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/agri-research-journal.net\/SjarEn\/?p=2928"},"modified":"2021-01-17T17:10:42","modified_gmt":"2021-01-17T17:10:42","slug":"using-box-jenkins-arima-models-to-forecast-syrian-olive-oil-production-and-estimate-the-losses-resulting-from-the-climate-changes-and-syrian-crisis","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/agri-research-journal.net\/SjarEn\/?p=2928","title":{"rendered":"Using Box-Jenkins (ARIMA) Models to Forecast Syrian Olive Oil Production and Estimate the Losses Resulting from the Climate Changes and Syrian Crisis"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Wael Habib<\/strong> <\/sup><\/strong>(1)<\/sup><\/strong>\nFayez Al-Mikdad<\/strong>(1)<\/sup><\/strong>\nand <\/strong>Mohammad Ghoush<\/strong>(2)<\/sup><\/strong>     <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

(1). Scientific\nAgricultural Research Center in Latakia, (GCSAR).\nDamascus, Syria. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

(2). Agro-Economy, General Commission\nof Scientific Agricultural Researches, Syria.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

(3). Agro-Economy, Tishreen\nUniversity, Syria.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

(*Corresponding\nauthor: Dr. Wael Habib.\nE-Mail:wael.ha76@gmail.com<\/a>). <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Received: 06\/08\/2020                               Accepted: 01\/09\/2020<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Abstract<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>

The objective of the research is to analyze\nthe time series of olive oil production in Syria (1961-2018) and defining its\ncomponents and characteristics in order to determine the appropriate predictive\nmode. In addition to estimate, the predictive value of the supposed production\nduring the period of the Syrian crisis (2011-2018) thus\nestimating losses as a result of this crisis. The results showed that the time\nseries of olive oil in Syria is not stationary. It characterized by three\ntrends of development, the first is a general trend that tends to rise, and the\nsecond is a cyclical trend, ie, biennial bearing (BB). The third is a random\ntrend resulting from abnormal climatic changes or security disturbances. The\ntiming of biennial bearing Phenomena id difficult to predict. It\nwas found that, the BB was responsible for 21.7% of the increase in production\nin the years of positive \/bearing production (the increase above the level of\nthe general production of the series). In contrast, this factor is responsible\nfor 18.9% of the decline in production in the years of negative\/nonbearing\nproduction. The best model for predicting olive\noil production in Syria was ARIMA (3.1.1), but the parameter of the lagYt-2<\/sub>\nwas insignificant. The self-regression parameters (AR) declare that the\nbehavior of this time series is often determined by its values in the first and\nthird recent years. While the moving average parameters (MA) indicates that,\nthe behavior of the time series (Yt<\/sub>)is often determined\nin terms of the current random noise and the previous random noise. According\nto estimates of this model, the total losses of olive oil production in Syria\nas a result of the Syrian crisis amounted to (277.3) thousands tons. These\nlosses are mostly due to the security unrest and the abnormal climate changes\nthat accompanied the crisis years as well.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Keyword:<\/strong> Olive Production in Syria, Box-Jenkins Models, Time Series, Biennial\/Alternative \u00a0\u00a0Bearing, Cyclical Trends.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Full paper in Arabic:\u00a0PDF<\/strong> <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Wael Habib (1) Fayez Al-Mikdad(1) and Mohammad Ghoush(2)     (1). Scientific Agricultural Research Center in Latakia, (GCSAR). Damascus, Syria. (2). Agro-Economy, General Commission of Scientific Agricultural Researches, Syria. (3). Agro-Economy, Tishreen University, Syria. (*Corresponding author: Dr. Wael Habib. E-Mail:wael.ha76@gmail.com). Received: 06\/08\/2020  … Continue reading →<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2928","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-sjar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/agri-research-journal.net\/SjarEn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2928","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/agri-research-journal.net\/SjarEn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/agri-research-journal.net\/SjarEn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/agri-research-journal.net\/SjarEn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/agri-research-journal.net\/SjarEn\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=2928"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/agri-research-journal.net\/SjarEn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2928\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2930,"href":"https:\/\/agri-research-journal.net\/SjarEn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2928\/revisions\/2930"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/agri-research-journal.net\/SjarEn\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=2928"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/agri-research-journal.net\/SjarEn\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=2928"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/agri-research-journal.net\/SjarEn\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=2928"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}