{"id":2785,"date":"2020-11-18T04:20:40","date_gmt":"2020-11-18T04:20:40","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/agri-research-journal.net\/SjarEn\/?p=2785"},"modified":"2020-11-18T04:20:41","modified_gmt":"2020-11-18T04:20:41","slug":"effect-of-five-years-agricultural-plans-on-the-area-and-%e2%80%8eproduction-of-barley-crop-in-syria","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/agri-research-journal.net\/SjarEn\/?p=2785","title":{"rendered":"Effect of Five-Years Agricultural Plans on the Area and \u200eProduction of Barley Crop in Syria"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center\"><strong>Alawi Ali<sup>*(1)<\/sup>\nIbrahim Hamdan Saqr<sup>(1)<\/sup> Mohamed Mahmoud<sup>(2)<\/sup> and Ali Khaddam<sup>(1)<\/sup><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>(1).\nDepartment of Agricultural Economics Faculty of Agriculture, Tishreen\nUniversity, Lattakia, Syria.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>(2). Department of\nEconomics and Planning, Faculty of Economics, Tishreen University, Lattakia,\nSyria.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>(*Corresponding author: Eng. Alawi Ali.\nE-Mail: alaweeali2@gmail.com).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center\">Received: 13\/03\/2019&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Accepted: 29\/05\/2019<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center\"><strong>Abstract<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This research contributes\nto draw a predictive image by looking at the future of barley cultivation in\nSyria. Therefore, it has an important agricultural policy applications for area\nand production appropriate for agricultural production planning and crop\nrotation. It aimed to analyze the area and production of barley depending on\nfive years in order to predict their changes during the period 2019-2025. The\nresearch was carried out using the descriptive-analytical approach and the\nstandard quantitative analysis method using box-jenkins method to analyze the\ntime series of production and area of barley within the years 1986-2018. The\nresults showed that the area cultivated with barley crops will increase\ngradually at an annual growth rate by (2.3) (annual growth rate)&nbsp; in the upcoming years (2019-2025) with a\nconfidence level 95%, using ARIMA model (0,0,1). The results indicated that the\ngoal of increasing production in the 11<sup>th<\/sup> Five-Years Agricultural\nPlan was not achieved. The production average of irrigated and rainfed areas\nreached 904.1 thousand tons, which was below the targeted of 1553 thousand\ntons. The production average of irrigated and rainfed areas declined during the\nperiod (2016-2018) by (-1.8%) and (-20.4%), respectively. The total barley\nproduction in Syria will increase at a very low growth rate estimated to 0.3%\n(annual growth rate) in the upcoming years (2019-2025) with a confidence level\n95%, using ARIMA model(1,0,1).&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key words: <\/strong>\u00a0Barley, Five-years agricultural plans, Production, Area.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Full paper in Arabic: <strong><a href=\"http:\/\/agri-research-journal.net\/sjar\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/v7n5p14.pdf\">PDF<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Alawi Ali*(1) Ibrahim Hamdan Saqr(1) Mohamed Mahmoud(2) and Ali Khaddam(1) (1). Department of Agricultural Economics Faculty of Agriculture, Tishreen University, Lattakia, Syria. (2). Department of Economics and Planning, Faculty of Economics, Tishreen University, Lattakia, Syria. (*Corresponding author: Eng. Alawi Ali. &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/agri-research-journal.net\/SjarEn\/?p=2785\">Continue reading <span class=\"meta-nav\">&rarr;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2785","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-sjar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/agri-research-journal.net\/SjarEn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2785","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/agri-research-journal.net\/SjarEn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/agri-research-journal.net\/SjarEn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/agri-research-journal.net\/SjarEn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/agri-research-journal.net\/SjarEn\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=2785"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/agri-research-journal.net\/SjarEn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2785\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2786,"href":"https:\/\/agri-research-journal.net\/SjarEn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2785\/revisions\/2786"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/agri-research-journal.net\/SjarEn\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=2785"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/agri-research-journal.net\/SjarEn\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=2785"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/agri-research-journal.net\/SjarEn\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=2785"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}