{"id":11099,"date":"2026-04-29T08:40:00","date_gmt":"2026-04-29T08:40:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/agri-research-journal.net\/SjarEn\/?p=11099"},"modified":"2026-04-29T08:40:00","modified_gmt":"2026-04-29T08:40:00","slug":"using-a-binary-dummy-variable-model-to-estimate-the-impact-of-the-syrian-crisis-on-wheat-production-in-syria","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/agri-research-journal.net\/SjarEn\/?p=11099","title":{"rendered":"Using a binary dummy variable model to estimate the impact of the Syrian crisis on wheat production in Syria"},"content":{"rendered":"

Wael Habib<\/strong>1*<\/sup>, Mohammad Ghoush1<\/sup> and Maha Khorshid2<\/sup><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

1 <\/sup><\/strong>Lattakia Research Center, General Commission for Scientific Agricultural Research, Syria.<\/span><\/p>\n

2 <\/sup>Department of Agricultural Economy, Faculty of Agricultural Engineering, Lattakia University, Syria.<\/span><\/p>\n

2 <\/sup>Research Administration of Natural Resources, General Commission for Scientific Agricultural Research, Syria. \u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

(*Corresponding author: Wael Habib, Email: wael.ha76@gmail.com<\/a> , <\/u>Tel: 033407349).<\/span><\/p>\n

Received:<\/strong> 18\/ 5\/ 2025\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Accepted:<\/strong> 10\/ 6\/ 2025 <\/span><\/p>\n

Abstract:\u00a0<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

The study aimed to estimate the impact of the crisis that Syria experienced at the beginning of 2011 on wheat production in the country. The methodology relied on secondary data from the annual agricultural statistical collection for the period (2000-2023), and used a prediction method based on binary dummy variables, in addition to appropriate methods for addressing econometric errors, especially the problem of collinearity. The results showed a decline in wheat production over the studied time series at a negative growth rate of -0.03%, parallel to a decline in area of -0.95% per year. Meanwhile, yields improved over the twenty-four years studied at a rate of 0.92% per year. Furthermore, multiple regression analysis using the binary dummy variables method revealed collinearity between the time variables, making it difficult to measure the impact of the Syrian crisis. This was addressed using the principal component transformation method. These results revealed a significant gap in annual wheat production compared to forecasts based on the general trend preceding the crisis, on the one hand, and the actual values achieved during the crisis period, which began in 2015 and continued until 2023, the final year of the series. Ultimately, the Syrian crisis contributed to slowing the previous increase in both area and production, resulting in losses in the expected growth of 21 million tons until 2023.<\/span><\/p>\n

Keywords:<\/strong> Wheat, Syrian crisis, binary dummy variables, collinearity.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00a0Full paper in Arabic: PDF<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Wael Habib1*, Mohammad Ghoush1 and Maha Khorshid2 1 Lattakia Research Center, General Commission for Scientific Agricultural Research, Syria. 2 Department of Agricultural Economy, Faculty of Agricultural Engineering, Lattakia University, Syria. 2 Research Administration of Natural Resources, General Commission for Scientific … Continue reading →<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[324],"tags":[1303,1304,1302,11],"class_list":["post-11099","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economics","tag-binary-dummy-variables","tag-collinearity","tag-syrian-crisis","tag-wheat"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/agri-research-journal.net\/SjarEn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11099","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/agri-research-journal.net\/SjarEn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/agri-research-journal.net\/SjarEn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/agri-research-journal.net\/SjarEn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/agri-research-journal.net\/SjarEn\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=11099"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/agri-research-journal.net\/SjarEn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11099\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":11102,"href":"https:\/\/agri-research-journal.net\/SjarEn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11099\/revisions\/11102"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/agri-research-journal.net\/SjarEn\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=11099"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/agri-research-journal.net\/SjarEn\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=11099"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/agri-research-journal.net\/SjarEn\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=11099"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}