Wael Habib ^*(1)

(1). Senior Researcher, Agricultural Research Centre in Lattakia, GCSAR, Syria.

(^*Corresponding Author: Dr. Wael Habib, E-Mail: wael.ha76@gmail.com).

Received: 23/11/2021         Accepted:18/04/2022

Abstract: 

This research aimed to analyze the nutritional gap of wheat in Syria in order to determine the characteristics of this gap and the trends of its development, and the extent to which it is affected by the Syrian crisis, that leads to the development of the appropriate predictive model. This study based on the time series data of the commodity balance and the food gap of wheat during the period (1961-2019), and ARIMA models were used to formulate the optimal prediction model compared to the traditional models.The results showed that there was an apparent gap in wheat self-sufficiency during the period of the Syrian crisis, which amounted to about 21%. The value of this gap during the study period was characterized by a great volatility, as the coefficient of variation increased to 367.5%, and most of the studied years witnessed a negative value of the gap (food deficit) amounting to a maximum of (-505.5) thousand dollars in 2013, while this gap decreased by achieving Positive values (food surplus) in some years with a maximum of (206.5) thousand dollars in 2007. As for the prediction process, it was found that there was no general statistically clear trend for the time series of the wheat gap in Syria using traditional models such as the method of Ordinary Least Squares, while the ARIMA (3,1,1) model was statically effective. This model gives expectations for a continued increase in the value of the wheat gap in Syria during the period (2020-2025), and indicates the need to take urgent measures by focusing on local wheat production, especially by increasing investments and reclaiming more agricultural land.

Keywords: Food Gap, wheat in Syria, Self-Sufficiency, Box-Jenkins Models, Time Series.

Full paper in Arabic: pdf