Applying  ARIMA Models for Forecasting the Production of Cotton Crop in Syria

Salwa Almohammad(1) Ibtessam Jasem*(2) and Mai Lubboss(1)

(1). Agriculture Economy Department, Faculty of Agriculture, Aleppo University, Aleppo, Syria.

(2). Cotton Crop Administration, General Commission for Scientific Agricultural Research (GCSAR), Damascus, Syria.

(*Correspoding author: Dr. Ibtessam Jasem. E-Mail: e_sam_0@hotmail.com).

Received: 31/12/2016                           Accepted: 25/01/2017

Abstract

Prediction acquired a great importance in economic studies, that made the decision-makers draw economic and social policies for future, depending on the available data of the phenomenon history. Many economic prediction methods were used as Autoregressive Integrated Moving Averages (ARIMA). This model is a mixture of autoregressive technique and moving averages. The objective of this research is to use ARIMA models for predicting production area and productivity of cotton crop in Syria, and at the level of the major producing provinces (Al Hasakah, Aleppo, Rakka and Al-Ghab), because of their high accuracy in time series analysis and prediction. Annual data of the production area and productivity of irrigated cotton crop during the period (1985-2012) was used. The results revealed that ARIMA model (1.0.0) is the most appropriate one for predicting the production area and productivity of cotton in Syria up till 2020 according to the statistical tests of the accuracy of predictive models. The results suggested an increase in area and productivity for the next eight years with an annual growth rate higher than the annual growth rate for the studied period (1985-2012), where the annual growth rates of the area and production were (0.48% and 0.30%), respectively.

Keywords: ARIMA models, Cotton , Syria.

Full paper in Arabic: PDF

Efficiency Evaluation of Some Nematophagous Fungi Against Root-Knot Nematode Meloidogyne incognita on Cotton Plants in Syria

AL- Masri, M. (1), S. Alarabi (1), R. Albaka (1), M. Abed Al kader (2) and K. Al-Assas (2)

(1). Scientific Agricultural Research Center in Hama, General commission for scientific Agricultural Research (GCSAR), Damascus,  Syria.                                                             (2). Plant Protection Department, Faculty of Agriculture, Damascus University, Damascus, Syria.                                                                                                        (*Correspoding author: Dr. Maymounah Al-Masri. E-Mail: dr.maymonh-almasri@hotmail.com).

Received: 04/01/2016                           Accepted: 28/03/2016

Abstract

The efficiency of 7 nematofagous fungi (Trichoderma harzianum, Monacrosporium eudermatum Strain 2024 (recently Arthrobotrys eudermatum), Arthrobotrys conoides Strain 2022, A. candida Strain 2012, Paecilomyces lilacinus Strain 14052 (recently Purpureocillium lilacinum), P. variotii Strain I and P. variotii Strain II) were evaluated against root-knot nematode M. incognita (race 3) on cotton plants (variety Aleppo 33) in pots under field conditions during 2012 at Hama Scientific Agricultural Research Center, GCSAR/Syria. The use of tested fungi reduced the number of egg masses on cotton roots, number of larvae in the soil, nematode reproduction rate, and improved cotton plants growth indicators comparing with the control plants (P≤0.05). The fungus A. conoides was the most efficient one in reducing the number of root gall (57%), while Paecilomyces fungi reduced significantly the egg hatching rates which ranged 13.2-18.2% comparing with the control that inoculated only with the nematode (63.5%), with no significant differences among them. Also, results showed significant differences with the relative efficiency rates for the two fungi (P.lilacinus and P. variotii Strain I), and nematicide Mocap (Ethoprop) in the reducing egg mass rates (52.3, 62.1, and 93.1, respectively). The effect of the fungus M. eudermatumwas was not only in the parasitism on the vermiform stages, but also it reduced the eggs average inside egg masses (455.8 egg\egg mass), similarly to the effect of nematicide Mocap (Ethoprop) treatment alone (203.7 egg\egg mass).

Key words: Cotton, Nematofagous Fungi, Meloidogyne incognita.

Full paper in Arabic: Efficiency Evaluation of Some Nematophagous Fungi Against Root-Knot Nematode Meloidogyne incognita on Cotton Plants in Syria

The Effect of Natural Syrian Zeolite on the Availability of Some Minerals in the Soil and Productivity of Wheat and Cotton in Gypsum Soils

Helal Gayerly(1) Samer Bregle(1) Muhamad Manhal Al Zubi*(1) Yahya Ramadan(2) Khaled Al Shebli(2) Amira Al Hafez(2) and Mayada Fattoum(2)

(1). Natural Resources Research Administration, General Commission for Scientific Agricultural Research (GCSAR), Damascus, Syria.
(2). Agricultural Research Center in Al Raqqa, GCSAR, Al Raqqa, Syria.

(*Corresponding author:Dr. Muhamad Manhal Al Zubi, Natural Resources Research Administration, General Commission for Scientific Agricultural Research (GCSAR), Damascus, Syria. E-Mail: manhalzo@yahoo.com. Mobile phone: 00963933334783, Fax: 00963112121460).

Received: 15/03/ 2015                                     Accepted: 06/05/ 2015

Abstract:

This study aimed to determine the impact of Syrian Zeolite on some soil properties and productivity of wheat and cotton crops, which is planted in the gypsum soil at Beer Alhashem Research Station, Al-Raqa Agricultural Research Center, General commission for Scientific Agricultural Research (GCSAR), Syria, begins from 2006 to 2010 seasons. Completely randomized block design was used with three replicates. The addition rates of zeolite were: (ZEO1)  at a rate of 90 m3/ha, (ZEO2) at a rate of 180 m3/ha, (ZEO3)  at a rate of  270 m3/ha, (ZEO4) at a rate of  360 m3/ha, (ZEO5)  at a rate of 450 m3/ha, and control without zeolite. Wheat variety (Bouhoth 6), and cotton variety (Raqaa5) were cultivated in a cropping rotation. The fertilizers were added according to the Ministry of Agriculture and Agrarian Reform (MOAAR) recommendations. Soil, and zeolite were analyzed before cultivation. The results showed significant increment in the productivity of cotton with the increase in adding zeolite in third season (ZEO5treatment, which produced 2.42 ton/ha), also in the fourth season (ZEO3, and ZEO4treatments, which produced 3.23and 3.08 ton/ha, respectively). The results also clarified in wheat experiment, that ZEO1treatment gave the best production as compared with other treatments in all seasons (3.5, 4.57, 5.4, 2.79 ton grains/ha, respectively). The increase in wheat productivity was noticed in all zeolite treatments as compared with control in most seasons, and the addition of zeolite 90 m3/ha in wheat experiment was the best as compared with the other zeolite treatments, but the productivity of ZEO5treatment was less as compared with other zeolite treatments. It was noticed a significant increment in mineral nitrogen, available phosphorus and available potassium with the addition of zeolite in the soil after harvesting.

Keywords: Zeolite, Soil fertility, Gypsum lands, Wheat, Cotton.

Full paper in Arabic: تأثير خام الزيوليت الطبيعي السوري على إتاحة بعض العناصر المغذية في التربة وعلى إنتاجية محصولي القمح والقطن في الأراضي الجبسية