Econometric Analysis of Oranges Production Function in Latakia Governorate

Almouthana Aziz Hasan*(1)  Mahmoud Mostafa  Alio(2)  Ibrahim Mohammad Abdullah(3)

(1). Directorate of Economic and Social Studies Research, Latakia Center, General commission for Scientific Agricultural Research (GCSAR), Damascus, Syria.

(2). Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture, Tishreen University, Latakia, Syria.

(3). Directorate of Economic and Social Studies Research, AL-Ghab Center, GCSAR, Damascus, Syria.

(* Corresponding author: Eng: ALmouthana Aziz Hasan. E-mail:

Received: 08/05/2018                                Accepted: 02/06/2018


The present study was conducted in Latakia Governorate during the growing season 2017/2018. A simple random sample of 352 oranges farmers were selected, in order to estimate the production function of “Cob Douglas” model to study the factors affecting oranges production and measure the elasticity of production inputs to determine the production stage. The study showed that the production changes were due to organic fertilizers, nitrogen, phosphate, and irrigation water quantity.  A significant positive effect was found for each of the production inputs in the applied model. The increase in the quantity of these inputs by 1% (when the quantity of other inputs were constant) led to an increases in the quantity of production by the elasticity of the production of 0.52%, which was smaller than one, that means the dominance of contradictory production capacity, where production is increasing at rates lower than the increase of the inputs.  This confirmed that production was in the second stage, which is the economic stage. It was also found that the production inputs were used in quantities less than the recommended quantity which is mentioned in the extension program for citrus. Therefore, it was important to provide the production requirements and subsidize the prices, particularly, the fertilizers (potassium), insecticide, and fungal control, to achieve the optimum production of oranges tree.

Key words: Econometric Analysis, Oranges, Production Function, Production Elasticity.

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Analysis of the Competitiveness Capabilities of Syrian Cumin Product in the International Markets

Tayseer Fouad Hatem*(1)

(1). Socio-Economic Research Administration, General Commission for Scientific Agricultural Research (GCSAR), Damascus, Syria.

(*Corresponding author: Dr. Tayseer Fouad Hatem. E-Mail:

Received: 28/10/2018                                Accepted: 23/12/2018


This paper aimed to study the competitiveness of the Syrian cumin product in the world market, and in major importing markets. The results showed that the market of cumin product was the oligopoly market, and the main export destinations were mainly Arab countries. There was a difference between the values of the indicators of competitiveness during the two periods of study and there was a decrease in the second period, although this decrease is still considered as good and high as compared to the competitive countries and gives competitive capabilities for the Syrian cumin product at the global level. The results also showed a high value of the revealed comparative advantage for the Syrian cumin product, and its competitive price in the global markets. The global market shares were high in Morocco, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Algeria and Netherlands. The Arab countries have the highest market share, iIn addition to a high value of the index of penetration of exports in the most important markets of cumin importing, such as Dutch market, Saudi, UAE, Egyptian and American markets. This indicates the possibility of good expansion within these markets. It also showed a high value of the indices of export power and dependence on exports for the Syrian cumin product, which indicates the importance of the cumin crop as a major export product of high importance relative to Syrian exports.

Keywords: Cumin, Competitiveness capabilities, Comparative Advantage, Market Share, Export Penetration Rate, Price Competitiveness.

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Demand Functions Estimation of Syrian Potatoes in the Jordanian and United Arab Emirates Markets

Mohammed Maary(1)* Maher Yousef(1) Mustafa Haj Hmaidi(1) and Bashar Nenneh(1)

(1). Department of economic, Faculty of Agriculture, Aleppo University, Aleppo, Syria.

(*Corresponding author: Eng. Mohammed Maary. E-Mail:

Received: 18/09/2018                                Accepted: 17/10/2018


The aim of the study was to identify the possibilities of developing Syrian potato exports and maintain market share in foreign markets by analyzing the current structure of Syrian potato exports and determining the most important factors influencing its demand in the main export markets of the Syrian potato. To achieve the objectives of the research, data were collected from secondary sources. Standard economic analysis methods represented in the estimation of some simple linear, multiple and nonlinear regression models, regression method and the correlation coefficients matrix were used to estimate the external demand functions of the Syrian potato. The results showed that the Arab countries were the most important importing markets for the Syrian potato during the period (2000-2015), and the most important markets were Jordan and the UAE, and the study of some variables affecting the Syrian potato crop in the Jordanian and UAE markets during the period (2000-2015), it was found that when the per capita income in Jordan led to the increase in the quantity required of the Syrian potato and the value of the elasticity of the demand for income was (-1.3), and the value of elasticity of demand price was (7.48), this means that the demand for Syrian potatoes is flexible. While price elasticity in the UAE market showed that the demand for Syrian potatoes is also flexible with the value of the elasticity of demand (-11.4). The price of Syrian potatoes for the prices of the competitive countries is one of the most competitive determinants of the potato product.

Keywords: Potato, Demand function, Price elasticity, Income elasticity.

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Export Constraints of Egyptian Potatoes Crop

Moataz Eliw Mostafa Ahmed*(1,3) Osman Ali Ismail(1) and Mohammed El Din Osman(2)

(1). Department of Agricultural Economics, faculty of agriculture, Al-Azhar University, Assuit, Egypt.

(2). Department of Agricultural Economics, faculty of agriculture, Minia University, Egypt.

(3). College of Economics and Management, Huazhong Agricultural University, China.

(*Corresponding author: Moataz Eliwi Mostafa Ahmad. E-Mail:

Received: 11/05/2019                                Accepted: 04/06/2019


The current research was aimed to analyze the various constraints facing Egyptian potatoes crop exports, and thus the possibility of overcoming these constraints, and developing proposals that could lead to further export development of that important crop. The results showed that there were many problems facing Egyptian exports of potatoes crop for export harvesting, which affect the efficiency of the export process. The survey showed that these problems represented about 18.23% of the concerns of exporters followed by the problem of financing export insurance which had the same proportion (18.23%) of exporters ‘ concerns, and the problem of sorting and grading stations was ranked third and represented about 15.16% of the concerns of exporters, followed in the fourth rank the problem of actions taken by the government towards exporters, which affects export efficiency for potatoes harvest, where these problems represented about 11.91% of the concerns of exporters, followed in the fifth rank to the eighth rank, the problems of inland transport, storage and refrigeration, problems related to the importing countries, and finally marketing information by about 11.37%, 8.66%, 8.30%, and 8.12% respectively.

Key words: Potatoes crop, Export constraints, Variance analysis, Kai Square.

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The Economic Estimation of Cost Functions in the Long Run and Scale Economies of Almonds in Homs Governorate

Khetam Idris*(1)

(1). Homs Research Center, General Commission for Scientific Agricultural Research (GCSAR), Damascus, Syria.

(*Corresponding author: Dr. Khetam Idris. E-Mail:

Received: 22/09/2017                                Accepted: 08/11/2017


The objective of this research is to study costs structure of almonds production in Homs governorate for the agricultural season 2015. To achieve the targets, the research depended on the econometric and statistical analysis of the primary data which was collected by interviews with the farmers of the studied region. The results of the cost structure analysis of the almonds production showed that the variable costs accounted approximately (66.11) % of total costs, while the fixed costs accounted (33.89) % of the total costs. The quantitative analysis showed that the optimal size of production that decreases the costs was (12.9) tons, but the optimum area was (49.54) dunum. The estimated elasticity of costs, amounted (1) at the optimum level of production, and the minimum price was calculated as (148673.08) sp/tons, and the function supply in long term was derived. A positive relationship between quantity supplied of almonds and price, when price is greater than (148673.08) sp/tons. Also, the results showed that the average cost decreases until it reaches to optimal level of production, while proportion economies of scale reach the maximum value 100% at optimum level of production average cost.

Key Words: Almonds, Economies of scale, Function supply, Function of production costs in long-term.

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Measuring Technical Efficiency of Wheat, Barley and Lentil Production Farms at Al-Zerbeh Region in Aleppo

Abdullah Al-Youssef*(1) Ahmad Shams Aldien Shaaban(2) Jamila Dirbas(3) Abdulatef Al-Assaf(1) Isam Khalifeh(1) and Yasmeen Naal(1)

(1). Aleppo Research Center, General Commission for Scientific Agriculture Research (GCSAR), Damascus, Syria.

(2). Aleppo University Center for Strategic Studies and Research, University of Aleppo, Aleppo, Syria.

(3). Cotton Research Administration, GCSAR, Damascus, Syria.

(* Corresponding author: Dr. Addullah Al-Youssef. Email:

Received: 20/04/2017                                Accepted: 24/09/2017


The aim of this research was to estimate production costs, and to compare technical efficiency levels and production gap of wheat, barley and lentil in the area within the project of enhancing food security in Arab Countries/Syria-Second Phase. The search conducted at Jabal Samaan region based upon 150 Questionnaires. The technical efficiency estimated by stochastic frontier analysis using Front 4.1 software. The results indicated an increase in the variable cost percentage of the total costs. The net profits were 650128, 458686 and 320021 S.P/ha for lentil, barley and wheat respectively. Averages technical efficiency were 81.5%, 67.3% and 82.9% for wheat, barley and lentil farmers respectively. Also, high significantly differences were found between actual and potential yield. Besides, lowest production gap was 340.3 (kg/ha) for lentil farmers, followed by wheat farmers (785.1 kg/ha), and finally barley farmers (1611 kg/ha).

Key Words: Production costs, Technical efficiency, Stochastic frontier analysis, Jabal Samaan.

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Marketing Efficiency of Sheep Milk and its Derivatives in the Middle Area (Homs & Hama)

Khetam Idris*(1)

(1). Homs Research Center, General Commission for Scientific Agricultural Research (GCSAR), Damascus, Syria.

(*Corresponding author: Dr. Khetam Idris. E-Mail:

Received: 25/12/2016                           Accepted: 22/01/2017


This research aimed to identify the value added and marketing efficiency of Syrian sheep milk which it utilized in livestock products. The central region of Syria (Homs and Hama) was selected, it has a comparative advantages of processing sheep milk products, according to a questionnaire of sheep owners sample. The questionnaire depended upon the type of breeding (resident, semi-nomadic and nomadic) in 2011. The results showed that the marketing of fresh milk is very important for the three groups of sheep breeders, followed by yogurt, then cheese, then the rest of the products, which has less comparative advantage such as shanklish, that made for the resident breeders only. The results showed that home manufacturing process was profitable, where the value added was achieved by manufacturing sheep milk into cheese, labna, ghee, yogurt, shanklish, and qarishah, respectively. The results showed that there are many marketing chains to market the products, starts from the producers who sell directly to the consumers, or to the retailers or to the wholesalers, or to the cheese makers. Heckman model with two steps was used to determine the marketing efficiency of sheep milk and its products. The effects of independent variables on farmers’ decisions to participate in the marketing with the best way were studied. The independent variables that affected positively milk processing and the quantities marketed were: The education level of the breeder, number of working years in the field of sheep breeding, stability, getting a loan, cattle size and the price of milk and cheese. While the independent variables that have significant and negative affect, in terms of the reduction of milk processing, and marketing were: Price of milk, permanent Bedouin, and distance to the nearest market to sell products.

Key words: Value-added, Marketing chains, Marketing efficiency, Marketing of sheep milk.

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Applying  ARIMA Models for Forecasting the Production of Cotton Crop in Syria

Salwa Almohammad(1) Ibtessam Jasem*(2) and Mai Lubboss(1)

(1). Agriculture Economy Department, Faculty of Agriculture, Aleppo University, Aleppo, Syria.

(2). Cotton Crop Administration, General Commission for Scientific Agricultural Research (GCSAR), Damascus, Syria.

(*Correspoding author: Dr. Ibtessam Jasem. E-Mail:

Received: 31/12/2016                           Accepted: 25/01/2017


Prediction acquired a great importance in economic studies, that made the decision-makers draw economic and social policies for future, depending on the available data of the phenomenon history. Many economic prediction methods were used as Autoregressive Integrated Moving Averages (ARIMA). This model is a mixture of autoregressive technique and moving averages. The objective of this research is to use ARIMA models for predicting production area and productivity of cotton crop in Syria, and at the level of the major producing provinces (Al Hasakah, Aleppo, Rakka and Al-Ghab), because of their high accuracy in time series analysis and prediction. Annual data of the production area and productivity of irrigated cotton crop during the period (1985-2012) was used. The results revealed that ARIMA model (1.0.0) is the most appropriate one for predicting the production area and productivity of cotton in Syria up till 2020 according to the statistical tests of the accuracy of predictive models. The results suggested an increase in area and productivity for the next eight years with an annual growth rate higher than the annual growth rate for the studied period (1985-2012), where the annual growth rates of the area and production were (0.48% and 0.30%), respectively.

Keywords: ARIMA models, Cotton , Syria.

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An Analytical Economic Study of Consumer Demand for Vegetable Oilin Damascus City

Fayez AL-Mikdad(1) Osama AL-Janadi(1) and Ahamad AL-Rifaee(1)

(1). Administration of Socio-Economics, General Commission of Scientific Agricultural Research (GCSAR), Damascus, Syria.

(*Corresponding author: Dr. Fayez Al-Mikdad. E-Mail:

Received: 23/10/2016                                 Accepted: 18/11/2016


The vegetable oils are a good source of energy, and are economically important. It is dramatically consumed in dietary patterns in Syria, in addition to the main role of vegetable oils in many food industries. The statistics revealed an increasing in domestic consumption of vegetable oils in Syria, thereby increasing amount of imports. This research aimed to estimate the demand function for vegetable oils, and to describe the relationships among changes in the amount consumed, prices, and income, to achieve that goal. The research has based on secondary data from the Ministry of Agriculture, and the Central Bureau of Statistics, in addition to the cross-sectional data obtained from a simple random sample consisting of 191 consumers in Damascus. The changes in the studied variables were followed periodically, every three months for one year (started from the fourth quarter of 2012 to the third quarter of 2013). The research based on descriptive statistical analysis as well as quantitative analysis to estimate the demand function for vegetable oil, and to derive the price, cross, and income elasticities. The study showed that the price and income elasticities of vegetable oils generally amounted to 0.2258, 0.1782 respectively, and there was a significant cross elasticity between sunflower and soybean oils as alternatives to each other.

Key words: Demand function, price, Cross and income elasticities, Consumption of vegetable oils, Alternative goods.

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Economics of Rainfed Olive Production in Homs Governorate

Moammar Dayoub*(1) Khetam Edrees(2) and Nisreen Edrees(2)

(1). Salamieh Agricultural Research Centre, General Commission for scientific Agricultural Research (GCSAR), Damascus, Syria.

(2). Socio Economic Studies Directorate, Homs Agricultural Research Center, GCSR, Damascus, Syria.

(*Corresponding author: Dr. Moammar Dayoub. E-Mail:

Received: 20/07/2016                     Accepted: 20/08/2016


The main objective of this research was the descriptive economic and econometric analysis of cost functions of rain fed olive in Homs Governorate/Syria. In addition, this study aimed to determent the economic efficiency that maximize profit. Primary data was collected in 2012 and 2013 through interviews with the farmers. The farms were divided according to stability zones to zone 1 and 2. According to the descriptive economic analysis of costs and returns of olive production, the highest average of production cost per kilogram of olives was (120.98) SP for zone (1) in 2013, and the lowest value was (76.76) SP for zone (2) in 2012. In general, an obvious increment in production costs was appeared; this is due to the increase in production supplies prices, and labor wages in 2013 when compare with 2012. Also, a significant increase in the cost of olive oil production in 2013 as compared with 2012. The olive oil cost of 1 Kg in zones 1 and 2 for the season 2012 were (436.58, 388.52), and (528.66, 522.83) in 2013, respectively, this is due to the influence of high temperature, and the fall of flowers, which led to a significant decrease in fruition, in addition to other reasons because of the crisis, included the rising in oil production costs, starting from labor wages, ending with the wages of wills and transportation. Using the econometric models of cost functions, the economic efficient size was computed. The optimal production, and area in zone 1 were in 2011 (3533.33 kg, 3.00 Ha), respectively, while in 2013 were (4021.74 kg 4.4 Ha), but in zone (2) the optimal production, and area were (3783.78 kg, 3.59 Ha) in 2012, while in 2013 were (4500 kg, 3.93 Ha), respectively. This increment in production, and area in 2013 due to the alternate fruit bearing phenomenon in olive trees, besides the increase in production costs. The study concluded the need to support production requirements, especially for rainfed olive, because it is considered an important income source for the families of the region, and contribute to the stability and sustainability of agricultural production.

Keywords: Econometric analysis, Costs of olive production, Rainfed, Economic efficiency.

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